Friends –
Two days ago Imran Khan held a huge rally in Lahore, at Minto Park, the same location where the Pakistan resolution was passed by the Muslim League back in 1940, calling for an independent Muslim majority state in British India. Imran Khan’s rally could be just as historic an event as the one back in 1940. Whilst the rally was well publicized using social media, and was expected to be big, it exceeded all expectations. Estimates run from between 60,000 to 400,000 in attendance. Independent estimates seem to run towards the middle of this range, which is a massive figure for a city of around 8 million. By all accounts it has been the largest political gathering in Lahore since 1986, the year I was born. And no, they were not gathering to cheer my birth back in 1986, but rather to cheer Benazir Bhutto, who returned to Pakistan from exile.
But in addition to attracting sheer numbers, the rally was peaceful and well organized. No security incidents. Young boys and girls were both present in large numbers, and according to one newspaper report, there was no eve teasing – if you have been anywhere near Pakistan, let’s say even if you’ve been to India, you would understand how big an accomplishment this is for everyone involved. Imran Khan did not use bullet proof glass, as has become necessary in all other large rallies around the country. Major Pakistani bands performed, galvanizing the youth in support of Imran Khan, and also providing a much needed open air party in a tough security environment (Imran Khan subscribes to a few “right wing” ideas, such as ending US drone strikes over Pakistani territory, which is probably why he is able to keep the radicals at a safe distance).
Imran Khan, the captain of Pakistan’s 1992 Cricket World Cup winning team, formed the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), or Pakistan Justice Movement, in 1996, after he successfully completed fund raising for a cancer hospital, built in memory of his mother. He stood from seven constituencies in the 1997 elections and was unsuccessful in each one. This was a huge shock at the time, especially considering that he was such a popular national figure – rural, feudal and uneducated Pakistan just didn’t seem to care about his reformist agenda. In 2002, Khan managed to get elected from his home constituency of Mianwali, but only after some very heavy engagement with the community. He was the only candidate from of his party to be elected to the National Assembly, which consisted of 272 elected members. This was also a disappointing result. The party was all but written off as a one man show, with the one man being an ego-maniac and political amateur, who could only manage to win his own seat and that too after some very concentrated effort. In 2008, he boycotted the elections, which made him look like a bad sport.
All along this period, however, he has attracted more than his fair share of attention from the media, and has always been considered a national leader, especially by the educated urban middle class. His ideas, however, are often hawkish – thus his reputation for being a political amateur. He was a key pro-democracy figure through the late Musharraf years, even though he had initially supported Musharraf. He was one of the key media figures in the 2008 long march against Musharraf. There has always been a raging debate in the middle class about whether one should support Imran Khan. He seems to be decent policy-wise and holds impeccable integrity in a field, and even in a country, where integrity seems to be turning into an extremely rare quality. But if he doesn’t have what it takes to move the masses, then one’s vote on him might be wasted. He and especially other members of his party might be too far above the electorate which might not be used to dealing with leaders who are not tribal or feudal - or just simply playing the political game by spewing out empty, uneducated political rhetoric.
But the Lahore rally has shown us that this is no longer the case - Imran Khan's and the PTI's fortunes are finally taking a sharp turn. Urbanization, education and a large youth demographic, coupled with new tools such as mobile phones and social media seem to be working in Imran Khan’s and the wider PTI’s favor. 40% of the constituencies in the National Assembly are now considered to be urban. It is expected that his party’s candidates will give the large traditional parties, the PPP and PML-N, a very tough time across the country in these urban constituencies, especially in the largest province of Punjab. In this province, which contitutes 50% of the country, the population is disillusioned with the performance of both the PPP (leading the Federal Government), and the PML-N (leading the Punjab Government). PTI’s candidates have already done well in a few by-elections, and the youth really seem to be becoming politicized again, after a generation or so of complete disillusionment with the political system.
So I am really excited for and optimistic about Pakistan’s future and strongly support the PTI. Even if Imran Khan does not win an outright majority, he is expected to become a large and powerful part of opposition in parliament. He can play a really constructive role in opposition and wait for momentum to further shift in his direction till the 2018 elections. I urge you to support him as well – you can start by registering as a member of the PTI on http://www.insaf.pk – the website is not very good, so please be patient and bear with it. I hope the PTI is able to attract some great volunteer talent between now and the 2013 elections to fix things like its website, and its social media operations, and generate that extra bit of support which can make all the difference. I would be happy to volunteer during the summers of 2012 and 2013.
But in addition to attracting sheer numbers, the rally was peaceful and well organized. No security incidents. Young boys and girls were both present in large numbers, and according to one newspaper report, there was no eve teasing – if you have been anywhere near Pakistan, let’s say even if you’ve been to India, you would understand how big an accomplishment this is for everyone involved. Imran Khan did not use bullet proof glass, as has become necessary in all other large rallies around the country. Major Pakistani bands performed, galvanizing the youth in support of Imran Khan, and also providing a much needed open air party in a tough security environment (Imran Khan subscribes to a few “right wing” ideas, such as ending US drone strikes over Pakistani territory, which is probably why he is able to keep the radicals at a safe distance).
All along this period, however, he has attracted more than his fair share of attention from the media, and has always been considered a national leader, especially by the educated urban middle class. His ideas, however, are often hawkish – thus his reputation for being a political amateur. He was a key pro-democracy figure through the late Musharraf years, even though he had initially supported Musharraf. He was one of the key media figures in the 2008 long march against Musharraf. There has always been a raging debate in the middle class about whether one should support Imran Khan. He seems to be decent policy-wise and holds impeccable integrity in a field, and even in a country, where integrity seems to be turning into an extremely rare quality. But if he doesn’t have what it takes to move the masses, then one’s vote on him might be wasted. He and especially other members of his party might be too far above the electorate which might not be used to dealing with leaders who are not tribal or feudal - or just simply playing the political game by spewing out empty, uneducated political rhetoric.But the Lahore rally has shown us that this is no longer the case - Imran Khan's and the PTI's fortunes are finally taking a sharp turn. Urbanization, education and a large youth demographic, coupled with new tools such as mobile phones and social media seem to be working in Imran Khan’s and the wider PTI’s favor. 40% of the constituencies in the National Assembly are now considered to be urban. It is expected that his party’s candidates will give the large traditional parties, the PPP and PML-N, a very tough time across the country in these urban constituencies, especially in the largest province of Punjab. In this province, which contitutes 50% of the country, the population is disillusioned with the performance of both the PPP (leading the Federal Government), and the PML-N (leading the Punjab Government). PTI’s candidates have already done well in a few by-elections, and the youth really seem to be becoming politicized again, after a generation or so of complete disillusionment with the political system.
