Friday, 2 August 2013

Adventures in rural Kenya - building an agri-inputs and livestock-servicing Social Enterprise

Here's some eclectic, and somewhat mundane, yet interesting thoughts and happenings from my time out here in Kenya. I am spending my summer supporting SIDAI Africa Limited, a for-profit social enterprise which seeks to set up a franchise network of agricultural input retail stores tied to veterinary service providers, to transform the way farmers take care of their livestock in Kenya.
I am back in Nairobi, sitting on the balcony of my apartment on a chilly evening, staring at the Yaya Twin Towers in Kilimani - a nice (and wealthy) suburb just 10 minutes away from Nairobi's Central Business District. The Yaya Twin Towers are part of a large high-end mixed-use real estate development, one of the dozens which have sprung up in Nairobi, and pay testament to the city's growing prosperity. What is odd though is that while one twin tower is complete, occupied and fully lit up, the other one is structurally complete, but unfinished and abandoned. In fact, it is an eye sore with its hollow windows and raw grey concrete walls.
The story I've heard is that the contractor had a dispute with the real estate developer, and it got so serious that the contractor poured concrete down the elevator shafts, rendering the entire building unusable. It takes a lot of spite and emotion to do something like that - it just does not seem economically rational at all, no matter how serious the dispute. We're talking about incurring quite a bit of "concrete" cost yourself in order to impose a cost on someone else. I suppose some things are just settled emotionally. Another version of the story has to do with building permits, zoning regulations and regulatory troubles. Whatever the real issue, it reminds one just how risky (and irrational) doing business here in Kenya can be.
I have just spent 3 days "out in the field" - social sector jargon for anything that is outside of an office in a major city (it's seldom an actual "field"). I was in and around Eldoret, one of Kenya's 10 or so large towns, with a population of 200 thousand. Eldoret is right in the middle of the (Great) Rift Valley, and Kenya's agricultural belt, which makes it significant for any agriculture focused enterprise. It was SIDAI's first distribution hub, and in spite of setting up another three distribution hubs, Eldoret still accounts for two-thirds of the company's turnover.
In Eldoret, I was leading two of my four "Strike Forces" - a fancy, action oriented title we have decided to give to the teams I am working with on my four projects here at SIDAI. Just as an example, one of these projects helps SIDAI build systems and capabilities for stock reordering. At the moment everything is done manually and on "gut feel". And while the human gut (or brain) generally does a good job, it has a basic tendency to forget, and misperceive things - and who can blame it when the organization is stocking 1200 or so SKUs (stock keeping units - retail industry jargon for product and pack-size combinations) - that's a lot to manually manage and keep track of! Plus the folks here at SIDAI responsible for stock reordering have never formally learnt lean inventory management principles, even though they intuitively understand and apply many of them. So I get to put into practice some of the real sciency stuff that I have learnt in Base Operations class at Stanford GSB. The MBA's hard learnings do come in useful, after all.
This morning we drove 280 kilometers (175 miles) North-East of Eldoret, to visit and interview 4 of SIDAI's franchisees. That's a lot of driving considering that several stretches of the road were absolutely terrible. It's a beautiful part of Kenya and what made the drive even more pleasant was the inspiring company and interesting places and happenings along the way. Dr. Odede, SIDAI's Operations Manager was in the driver's seat - and our travel companions included Kellen, SIDAI's Store Manager for Eldoret, and Kandia, SIDAI's franchisee from a beautiful little place called Kerio Valley.
Kandia is an incredibly inspiring person. In Kenya, one's status is determined by one's size - both weight and height, but especially weight. The heavier one is, the more presence and importance one typically garners. But Kandia is not particularly tall, and in fact quite lean - yet he has an incredible presence and strong gravitas. He is quite smart and well educated, and when he speaks, people listen. We had rich conversations in the car about everything from his adventures with bee-keeping (he seems to be a self-trained expert), to Kenya's New Constitution and devolved Governance structure - especially what it means for the country's development. We even talked about the social sector and broader development in Kenya, and how some of the Government and social sector projects can be counter-productive, and create dependence rather than sustainable development. I was pleasantly surprised to hear terms like "hand-outs" and "non-market actors" being thrown around. In spite of the country's myriad problems, many smart and educated Kenyans do actually seem to understand what is happening around them very well.
Kandia set-up his franchise store only two years ago, after retiring from a long career in the private sector, working for an agricultural inputs manufacturer. He found a location on a stretch of road, which does not have another agricultural store for at least 30 kilometers in either direction - he literally picked-out "white space". And while he is currently only turning over US$2,000 or so a month (not a lot - an average SIDAI franchisee can turn over US$5,000), he has a bold vision and sees his store's sales multiplying as he helps develop farmers around the area. He claims that the soil and conditions around his store location are perfect for some very high value horticulture crops, like mangoes and watermelons - and he is willing to invest his own time and capital to help farmers learn to plant these crops. It's a great example of how one smart, educated and enterprising local individual, with a bold vision, can help change the destiny of an entire community. And as a pure private sector player he will likely develop a sustainable and mutually beneficial long-term relationship with the community, and is thus likely to be more effective than any non-profit, especially the likes of Technoserve.
One of the other topics of discussion was the Watermelon seed shortage in Kenya. Kenya is a big producer of watermelons. Three fruits - bananas, pineapples and watermelons - are served in large quantities in any Kenyan hotel buffet. But apparently the East Africa Seed Company has only managed to import 600 kilograms of watermelon seed this year, and is struggling to source more from its global suppliers. And as the planting season approaches, the demand for the seed is in the tens of thousands of kilograms. It's an extreme situation which necessitates strict rationing - and SIDAI is struggling to source these seeds. Perhaps next years' hotel buffets will be missing one of the three fruits.
But Kandia managed to get hold of some seeds using his connections, which left our SIDAI colleagues dumbfounded, and even impressed. It just underscores the importance of building networks and informal connections in order to be successful in this market. In a similar story, one of SIDAI's suppliers was being difficult, refusing to deliver to SIDAI's Eldoret hub (there's a lot of competitive dynamics with SIDAI's model which make such interactions not uncommon). But SIDAI's CEO had worked at the supplier before, and simply made a phone call to an old colleague there. Within minutes a phone call came back from the supplier and everything was in order.
I often wonder whether foreign or expatriate social entrepreneurs are at a serious disadvantage in places like Kenya because they lack family, and broader social networks which take years if not decades to develop. And this problem is compounded when expatriates stay relatively insulated in their own communities, rather than making an effort to get to know and relate with Kenyans. The problem almost certainly exists, but is perhaps not particularly noticeable from their vantage point. After all, an expatriate entrepreneur would have figured that there were no watermelon seeds to be had, would have played by the rules and constraints, and would have ultimately been plugged out of or ignorant to the kinds of things someone like Kandia could achieve.
Kandia's store is also an M-PESA agent. M-PESA is a mobile money platform which serves as a virtual bank account and a domestic money transfer or remittance service. In fact there are twice as many M-PESA users as there are bank account holders in Kenya, and by some estimates, almost 25% of Kenya's GDP is being transacted on M-PESA. He claims that the M-PESA agency helps complement his core agricultural retail business, by helping provide fresh money or liquidity to his customers. They come and withdraw money from the M-PESA agent, money usually sent by their kids or relatives working in the towns, and immediately spend it on agricultural goods and supplies at the store. Absolutely brilliant!
Kandia also stocks M-KOPO solar lanterns, an innovative new solar solution which combines mobile money with solar, to break down the upfront investment that is required in any solar system. It's sort of a pre-paid solar system that can be topped-up on a running basis using mobile money. In my view, it's the most refreshing of the 100 or more otherwise virtually identical solar products which are now out in the Kenyan market (they're literally all generic - even sourced from the same suppliers up in Shenzhen). He says that they're moving fast (i.e. selling a lot).
But I was surprised to hear of the generous trade and credit terms which M-KOPO has extended to him (at least SIDAI is not that generous - but to be fair, SIDAI's product value chains are much better established). I guess it is important for them to do so in order to help move their products. Yet I see so many social entrepreneurs making the mistake of being too stingy with the terms they provide to their distribution channel partners - and then they complain that their products don't gain any traction. It's a very simple story of push vs. pull driven by channel incentives - there are real and important lessons to be learnt from players like M-KOPO and their distribution outcomes on the ground here in Kenya, which fresh social entrepreneurs often fail to tap into.
As we drove along the winding roads, the landscape was quite scenic. We passed by Torok Falls, a tall waterfall on the edge of a lush green mountain. What was particularly great about this waterfall was that it appeared out of the blue, and was visible from across a long stretch of the road. It was at least 100 meters tall, if not more, and double storied (i.e. it fell onto a ledge or terrace, and then fell again) - a refreshing sight for the eyes. There were many sign boards around it offering guided treks along the hill - when I am back next time, I am definitely setting aside time to hike around.
Some of the views from the hills looking down onto Kerio Valley were absolutely stunning. The middle of the valley is home to a small-sized lake and a game reserve. The lake is home to hundreds of crocodiles - and it is possible to lodge on its edge and spend time with the crocs. From another stretch of road, we could see the absolutely massive and serene Lake Baringo, with its giant island hill in the center. Lake Baringo is one of the dozen or so "Rift Valley Lakes", pools of water gathered up at different spots in the depressions of the Rift Valley.
Acacia trees and shrubs lined the roadside, a quintessential part of the African landscape. At one point we saw a runner dressed in tights, and somewhat proper looking athletic gear running along the road. He was not a school boy returning home, but a proper looking athlete in his 20s, wearing some fairly high end running gear. The first runner was interesting to see, but then runner after runner kept showing up. In fact, there were even Caucasian runners, running along the road.
We were near a town called Iten, which is home to the International Athletics Federation's high altitude training facility. This is the place which tends to produce many of Kenya's marathon World Champions. In fact, all of Kenya's marathon champions hail from a single tribe, the Kalenjin Tribe, which is settled in this part of the country, and is one of Kenya's 14 larger tribes. Kandia is in fact a member of this tribe - and the joke goes that there can never be a heavy Kalenjin because of their athletic genes, which perhaps explains why Kandia is also so lean (in spite of the massive blob of Ugali he ate for lunch - Ugali is a maize cake, which is absolutely tasteless in every way, and heavy enough to induce a comma). And it's not just genetics - the high altitude and rolling hills in this part of the country build breathing capacity and stamina from a young age. These are perhaps the best training conditions in the world for long-distance runners - right in the middle of this part of rural Kenya. Fascintating stuff!
Dr. Odede, SIDAI's Operations Manager was another inspiration. As we were driving down a stretch of road, he suddenly pulled over to the side and reversed back towards a field where a girl in her teens, and dressed in a school uniform, was sitting down. He postulated that she was menstruating, and because she probably could not afford a sanitary pad, she was staying away from school, and hiding out there. It's a really depressing state of things - so many girls drop out of school because of this issue. We drove up to the next store along the road, bought some sanitary pads and brought them back. By the time we got back, the girl had disappeared, and the local community had gathered up and asked us to leave. Apparently girls are forced to sell their bodies, just so that they can buy sanitary pads, and the community suspected that Dr. Odede was interested in taking advantage of the girl. It's a really sad misunderstanding - in the end we could not actually help the girl. Sometimes there are real structural trust issues which hamper good efforts in the social sector. Separating the good from the bad is non-trivial.
Another heart-warming Dr. Odede moment took place in a small market town called Mogotio, where we were visiting another SIDAI franchisee. Now lots of interesting things happened in this town. A massive convoy led by the self-proclaimed Kenyan Prophet, Dr. David Owour made a huge racket as it passed by the store, and preached its message. I had never heard of this prophet before - as I inquired about him, Dr. Odede and Kellen shared stories of people they know who were persuaded to sell all their assets and hand them over to the Prophet's Church in the hope that they would be rewarded with even more. Superstition is by far the most successful Base of the Pyramid business tactic.
But coming back to Dr. Odede's moment - we got back into our car and were ready to leave the town as several kids between the ages of 5 and 10 ran towards us, asking for money. This is not uncommon across Kenya and I have developed a habit of ignoring these kids, because whatever money I might hand over to them will not help them in any structurally sustainable manner, and may in fact incentivize them to ask for more, the next time any foreign visitor is in town. This cycle of dependency and even entitlement is ultimately harmful.
Dr. Odede seemed to follow the same policy - I assume that everyone with experience in this part of the world ignores the kids. But there was one particular kid to whom Dr. Odede handed over 10 shillings, which is a little more than 11 US cents. When I asked him why that kid in particular and not the others, he responded that the kid was actually hungry, and that he could tell this from the way he looked. The rest of the kids, according to Dr. Odede would have just wasted the money on chocolates or Bubble Gum, but this kid in particular really needed the money.
So while the rest of us would have put in place a blanket policy across all these kids, and not even bothered to look directly at them, perhaps out of guilt and perhaps out of the frustration of having to deal with them, Dr. Odede still had the perceptiveness, energy and courage to try to find that one kid who might in fact really benefit from the money. Now some part of me is skeptical of Dr. Odede's ability to pick the right kid out, but his gesture still makes me feel a little ashamed of myself.
As we rushed back to Eldoret Airport to make it in time for my flight back to Nairobi, it was pouring rain. Traffic was slow, and the road was muddy - but all this just seemed to add to the charm of the experience. We made it to the check-in counter literally seconds before it was about to close. And Eldoret has the cutest little airport - the fact that it is so small makes it so refreshing to use - just one little hall divided up into all the little things an airport needs, like check-in counters, security check-points and lounge areas. If only every airport could be like this.
The 35 minute flight to Nairobi was prolonged by another 15 minutes, because Nairobi Airport's runway was congested. The Government wants to invest in a badly needed 2nd runway on land that was originally ear-marked for the airport's expansion, but squatters have settled there. Evicting them will create a huge uproar, and the squatters have an incentive to hold-in and resist eviction as much as possible. I guess, there's a price to pay for democracy, a free press, and societies which value distributive justice - literally in the extra fuel and time spent up in the air. And airlines, which are a critical enabler for economic development, will be less likely to serve the Nairobi route because of these issues - overall output, in the utilitarian sense, will be sub-optimal, which is again a depressing state of affairs, especially for such a poor country.
Finally, as I landed in Nairobi and was waiting for Benson, my taxi driver, to come pick me up, I heard a loud roar and cheer in the adjacent international terminal. Apparently the President, Uhuru Kenyatta, had arrived back in Nairobi. As Benson pulled in to pick me up, we scrambled to try to beat the President out of the airport. Benson told me that if we fell behind, we would be stuck there for a long time, as roads are typically completely blocked out for the motorcades of important public officials. Ultimately we did beat him, and my taxi driver who is generally quite jolly, was especially elated this time. Not only had we avoided "the jam" but we were also taking advantage of open signals, which were being used to clear the roads for the President's approaching motorcade. I guess we were lucky which was a good reason to be happy, but I was more angry that public officials have to be so privileged in this country.
Just another day here in Kenya! I suppose that the little mundane things one experiences here can be quite interesting. These are some of the benefits of living in an emerging market!

Monday, 14 January 2013

It’s all about the politics – Mexico’s monopolies



This is the fourth and final post in a series of four blog posts from my recent study trip to Mexico, with the Stanford GSB. Here’re some facts and tid-bits on the trip which provide a bit of an overall flavor:

§  The people: 35 Stanford GSBers and their partners, hailing from 14 different countries –backgrounds as diverse and unique as Air Force Officers, Social Entrepreneurs, Finance Ministerial Analysts, Film Makers, Start-up Starters, Seismologists, Sports Analysts, Chemistry Teachers, Family Businessmen … and of course … bankers & consultants

§  The places: 3 different cities over 10 days, including Oaxaca, Monterrey and Mexico City – each with a very different and unique character

§  The experiences: Discussing Mexico’s challenges in meetings with business and public sector leaders; watching Mexican soap operas being filmed, including meeting the most charismatic man in the world (not to be confused with the most interesting man in the world, whom we also met); exploring ancient monuments; eating good food and drinking giant margaritas; and of course, shouting and cheering like mariachis.



Those of you who know me also know that I love to have a good argument – I am a contrarian, and I will take any opportunity to pick a bit of a fight. There’re complex personal drivers behind this – when I give my “Talk” at the GSB, I will elaborate upon and connect them. Now don’t get me wrong – I almost always keep these fights polite and civil. And while I do often loose potential friends in these encounters, sometimes these debates can be eye-opening, providing a window into a perspective which I previously under-considered. One such fight took place between myself, and two of my fellow trip participants. The argument was over Carlos Slim Helu, Mexico’s telecom monopolist and the richest man in the world.

Now, at first, I found it downright shocking that my two fellow participants viewed Carlos Slim as an inspiration. Of course everyone has an opinion, but this one was just too far beyond my acceptable range for me to stomach. But as a result of this discussion, I now see where they are coming from, and why Carlos Slim has enjoyed political support in Mexico. Not only does Carlos Slim run philanthropic organizations which make him a popular father figure, helping support the masses in Mexico (somewhat like a Rockefeller or a Carnegie in the United States), but he also gets a lot of respect for what he has achieved. There’s some national pride to be had in having the richest man in the world be your countryman. Also, it may not be entirely inaccurate to attribute much of his success to his wits and talents – even though I clearly disagree with the ethical merits of the ends to which these wits and talents have been deployed. As one of our speakers put it – “he (Carlos Slim) has used every trick in the book to hold onto his empire”. In fact, each of our speakers, all of whom belong to a highly educated business class of Mexicans, opposed Carlos Slim. Perhaps their education shaped their ethical compass, or perhaps they are natural opponents of Slim’s interests, since as business people, high telecom costs are not good for them.




When monopolies are discussed, everyone in the room holds these sad half expressions

But either way, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Carlos Slim’s telecom monopoly has survived for as long as it has in fact survived. The average person either supports him, or cannot connect the dots, and thus takes an ignorant, perhaps even an apathetic stand. Oh, the virtues of democracy!
But this might all be changing due to two factors.

i) As I described in my previous blog post on the media:

“The recent re-election of the PRI (The Institutional Revolutionary Party), the Left leaning party which has governed Mexico for much of Mexico’s modern history, has led to a series of tangible reforms which significantly change Mexico’s fundamentals and prospects …

… the PRI has legislated to make broadband-access “a universal right” within Mexico. While this might sound symbolic, and even vacuous, it’s a very clear first step in dismantling the telecommunications monopoly of Carlos Slim Helu. With telecommunications being a key input factor in the information and service economy, having pricey telecommunications services, because of a regulated monopoly, is a huge burden on business and development. The new Government clearly understands this, and the legislation actively begins to politicize the problem, which is an important first step towards addressing it.”

ii) The other crocodiles are circling and want their share:

In a meeting with a media broadcasting monopolist, we learnt the terrible things that Carlos Slim is doing to Mexico – perhaps the speaker feels that they aren’t obvious, and needs to altruistically push the right political agenda. Or perhaps the media broadcaster wants its own share. He criticized Carlos Slim, but also repeatedly suggested that his firm should be allowed to enter the market, and that things should be left “cushy”. This is where Democratic governance can be very powerful, and the people and their elected legislators can make the final judgments. And it’s an amazing form of poetic justice, how one crocodile can neutralize the other.

This post ends my four part series on the Mexico GSB trip.

The power of perceptions & the media – Mexico’s drug challenge and new era of optimism



This is the third in a series of four blog posts from my recent study trip to Mexico, with the Stanford GSB. Here’re some facts and tid-bits on the trip which provide a bit of an overall flavor:

§  The people: 35 Stanford GSBers and their partners, hailing from 14 different countries –backgrounds as diverse and unique as Air Force Officers, Social Entrepreneurs, Finance Ministerial Analysts, Film Makers, Start-up Starters, Seismologists, Sports Analysts, Chemistry Teachers, Family Businessmen … and of course … bankers & consultants

§  The places: 3 different cities over 10 days, including Oaxaca, Monterrey and Mexico City – each with a very different and unique character

§  The experiences: Discussing Mexico’s challenges in meetings with business and public sector leaders; watching Mexican soap operas being filmed, including meeting the most charismatic man in the world (not to be confused with the most interesting man in the world, whom we also met); exploring ancient monuments; eating good food and drinking giant margaritas; and of course, shouting and cheering like mariachis.



The media can make or break countries like Mexico, Pakistan and India. From positive self-fulfilling prophecies to vicious cycles fueling and reinforcing negative perceptions, the media can sometimes be a tremendous help, and sometimes an inescapable curse. While it is obvious where India and Pakistan lie in those buckets, Mexico is surprisingly hard to bucket. Here’s the two sides of the spin …

Let’s start with the positives. The recent re-election of the PRI (The Institutional Revolutionary Party), the Left leaning party which has governed Mexico for much of Mexico’s modern history, has led to a series of tangible reforms which significantly change Mexico’s fundamentals and prospects (at least in my own humble opinion, and as far as I believe, in the opinion of most development experts – there are obviously some political constituents who will disagree with us, and I may of course be suffering from that “in-group bias” which they keep telling us we might be suffering from in many of our Organizational Behavior classes). The PRI has taken on the Teachers’ Unions, historically an important political constituency for them, but one which is blamed for holding hostage Mexico’s less than high quality educational system. This is clearly a huge step in the right direction, and if we believe that “Total Factor Productivity” (TFP), that old friend from Development Economics, is responsible for much of the differences in income across countries, then improving education is clearly the right step in improving Mexico’s prospects. Although it is hard to neatly account for all the components of TFP, clearly education is a big one – just intuitively, a better educated population is likely to be a more productive one.

In addition to this, the PRI has legislated to make broadband-access “a universal right” within Mexico. While this might sound symbolic, and even vacuous, it’s a very clear first step in dismantling the telecommunications monopoly of Carlos Slim Helu. With telecommunications being a key input factor in the information and service economy, having pricey telecommunications services, because of a regulated monopoly, is a huge burden on business and development. The new Government clearly understands this, and the legislation actively begins to politicize the problem, which is an important first step towards addressing it.

Then there were trends which benefit Mexico, not so much for Mexico’s own fundamental progress, but rather due to external factors. Discovery of cheap North American shale gas is a huge and highly legitimate one. Also, one trend we kept hearing about was China’s labor costs exceeding Mexico’s within the next couple of years, arguably making Mexico more competitive than China. While this argument likely under-adjusts for productivity drivers, and attributes the majority of these changes to demographics; conveniently ignores countries like Vietnam, India and Indonesia, which still have much lower labor costs than both Mexico or China; and also ignores away some of the other levers and dynamics of investment decisions at the firm level, such as “Ease of doing business”, it is clearly being cited as an important trend. We kept seeing charts where by 2016, Mexico’s exports to the US will be greater than China’s. But this is a forecast, and as the joke goes – some twenty-something year old analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) made it up; some businessmen believed it and invested on the basis of it; and the same old EIU Analyst, now in his thirties, was elevated to the status of Nostra-Damus, and prophesized the end of the world. But sarcastic jokes aside, self-fulfilling prophecies exist. Ultimately, while forecasts such as those produced by the EIU might seem useful, we ought to be wary of their real value.

But clearly there is something to be said for optimism and the role of “animal spirits” in promoting growth. As Guillermo, one of our trip leaders shared with us – through-out Mexico’s modern history, Mexico has always felt like it has underperformed. Not only did the early wars and the territorial losses impact the national psyche or self-confidence, since then Mexican’s have felt like laggards in many fields from football (some of you might call it soccer) to economic development. But now there is renewed hope and optimism in Mexico. Everyone in Mexico feels that it is finally their time to shine. There is something clearly beneficial and heart-warming in this development – one must appreciate the positive impact of self-fulfilling prophecies.


Look how cheery & optimistic our Mexican trip leaders are - they did an incredible job

Now for the old negative problem – Mexico’s drug wars. I personally believe that it is an impossible problem to solve. So long as drugs will be illicit, and there will be demand in the US, the drug problem will persist. It’s not a cancer which can be eradicated with law enforcement or brute military power. It’s a perpetual problem rooted in incentives, economics and human nature. In many ways, I see parallels with Pakistan, and the fallout of the war in terror being fought in Afghanistan and primarily by the US. Our cities have been turned into war zones, when we do not believe that we have much to do with the root causes, and believe further that the US is doing very little to address the root causes.

You might disagree with me, and there are many shades of grey. But what is most interesting about Mexico’s issue is that not a single business or public sector leader within Mexico cited the drug war as an issue at all – it was never brought up in open ended talks; we as a group didn’t ask any questions about it – perhaps we felt safe through-out our trip, and didn’t feel like it even impacted us as gringos from across the border, where all we hear about Mexico is centered around the drug wars. One leader, the Chairman of the FEMSA brewery, did bring it up, but in a different context. We took this particular meeting in a rather sterile “Business Club” – a large event and conferencing space, in a posh part of Monterrey. He was disappointed that the GSB, which has a tradition of visiting his brewery, and sampling beers fresh off the production line on these annual study trips, was unable to do so this particular year, because the GSB’s security advisors deemed that the brewery part of Monterrey was too risky to visit. In fact, it was clear from his tone and expression that he thought that the security assessment was plain ridiculous. Again, different opinions and risk tolerances are different – but this is certainly something to ponder over. Are the security assessments of two sets of individuals, both of whom are arguably experts in this area, clearly different? Or have the negative perceptions, biased by a sensationalist media, created such an intolerance for risk, that one party has to take a very different stance than the other?


 The chairman of FEMSA, along with his beer

I believe that all media perceptions, either positive or negative are ultimately rooted in some real fundamentals, but then fueled out of control. And it is also important to realize that the media just caters to what the Plebs want, which is difficult if not impossible to change. So if we are to truly create change, we have to begin to change fundamentals. But as Plebs ourselves, perhaps we also hold a responsibility to consider carefully what we choose to subscribe to in the media.

Such a nuanced and complicated conclusion is exhausting, so enough on the media … next post is on Mexico’s monopolies.

Technocrats can be immensely inspiring – Meeting with Pedro Aspe



This is the second in a series of four blog posts from my recent study trip to Mexico, with the Stanford GSB. Here’re some facts and tid-bits on the trip which provide a bit of an overall flavor:

§  The people: 35 Stanford GSBers and their partners, hailing from 14 different countries –backgrounds as diverse and unique as Air Force Officers, Social Entrepreneurs, Finance Ministerial Analysts, Film Makers, Start-up Starters, Seismologists, Sports Analysts, Chemistry Teachers, Family Businessmen … and of course … bankers & consultants

§  The places: 3 different cities over 10 days, including Oaxaca, Monterrey and Mexico City – each with a very different and unique character

§  The experiences: Discussing Mexico’s challenges in meetings with business and public sector leaders; watching Mexican soap operas being filmed, including meeting the most charismatic man in the world (not to be confused with the most interesting man in the world, whom we also met); exploring ancient monuments; eating good food and drinking giant margaritas; and of course, shouting and cheering like mariachis.



Pedro Aspe is very “Professor-like” – clearly a technocrat. On the first slide of his presentation, he took great pains to explain and elaborate to us the two axes on his chart, which were otherwise clearly labeled and fairly self-explanatory. It seems that his typical audience might not be as used to this sort of material. But our group of 35 Stanford GSBers was both “getting-it” and mesmerized through-out his talk, as he went on to share very detailed and personal stories from his personal life and professional career – stories which explain some of his life’s work, and his passions, motivations, beliefs and values.

Trained as an Economist at MIT, Pedro Aspe went on to become Mexico’s Secretary of Finance. He has a long list of impressive accomplishments in public service, including “crisis-proofing” Mexico (all the good stuff, including renegotiating foreign debt, restructuring the Central Bank to make monetary policy independent, and pushing a controversial privatization plan) and architecting NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement). At 62, he is now in the private sector, leading a firm which I understand to be doing everything from managing its own principal investments, to providing financial and even non-financial advisory services.




Here's Pedro Aspe, with all his joy and intensity

Even though he has been associated with the PRI (The Institutional Revolutionary Party), the Left leaning party which has governed Mexico for much of Mexico’s modern history, his political views are clearly very centrist. Not only did he state this explicitly, but he also described how political dynamics in the United States have traditionally been very centrist, despite the presence of two different parties, and how the US is in a bit of trouble currently, having moved away from this in recent years, with the advent of movements like the Tea Party. I would say that this position is “the hallmark” of a successful technocrat – willing to associate for pragmatic political reasons, but ultimately understanding that all things will be rational and real, and certainly over and above petty ideologies. It’s easy to get political and feel like you might be “selling out” – Imran Khan from Pakistan, for example, wouldn’t associate with Musharraf, even though there is strong centrist and even populist potential there. Egos come in; personalities clash – ideologies kill the potential for pragmatism. There is so much humility and tangible benefit in being a centrist technocrat. 

Pedro Aspe demonstrates this humility in more than one way. When asked about his role models or leaders that he admires, Pedro Aspe cited the Finance Ministers of Chile, New Zealand and Singapore, as he went on to “sell-us” on the TPP (The Trans-Pacific Partnership), a next generation free-trade agreement which aims to address such complex and thorny issues as how to deal with intellectual property or duplicated regulatory approvals in free-trade regimes. Perhaps this was a very elegant way to sell the TPP to us, and answer the question – and we were all clearly sold and wowed. But what’s amazing about this answer is that he picked his peers – he did not cite any larger than life figures like Gandhi or Mandela. He picked individuals with whom he’s interacted on a personal basis. That’s very special, and goes on to show just how pragmatic and authentic an individual he truly is.

Finally, it was very clear that he took a stand on tough issues and spoke it like he saw it. Catapulting a highly protected economy into a free-trade era is not an easy task. At the time that he made this happen, the vast majority of Mexico opposed him. But today, 70% of Mexicans believe that NAFTA is beneficial for Mexico. It takes not only a man of strong intelligence and vision, but also of courage and character to push through on unpopular policies like NAFTA. When asked how he dealt with self-doubt, it was clear that he constantly questioned his own beliefs. And it was perhaps in the process of questioning his own beliefs that he gained the courage to go ahead and push them. As a “contrarian”, I find this to be particularly inspirational – the need to keep questioning is just so important.

We met many inspiring leaders on our Mexico trip, but for me, and also for most of my fellow participants, Pedro Aspe was far and ahead the most inspirational of them all. Life as a technocrat can be very hard – you have many potential good answers, but very few of the levers to create the political space to put those answers in place. It’s almost sort of a thankless job – if you do well, you only did what was obvious and right, and if you screw up you’re political toast. But leaders like Pedro Aspe reassure me that technocrats and public servants can find immense purpose and meaning while changing the world.

My next post in this series will deal with public perceptions of a country like Mexico … get ready for some criticism of the media, and us gullible consumers of the media.