Readers - This string of fictional diplomatic cables, has become quite popular, and makes for a very interesting read, so I thought I would share it with everyone. The author seems to be anonymous, but has done a very good job structuring and synthesizing our issues.
Wonder what happened to all those Wikileaks? Weren't there thousands and thousands of cables they were slowly sifting through?
***
Memo #3 US Ambassador Robert Munter
From: Robert Munter
US Ambassador to Pakistan
Islamabad, Pakistan
To: Assistant Secretary of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affair
Department of State
Washington, DC
Date: December 31, 2010
Re: Pakistan the first quarter
Having been in Pakistan since October, I am forwarding a brief review of my first personal impressions.
1) View about America: Survey after survey has shown that the populace at large has very unfavorable views about US government and policy. The perception in the corridors of power is very different. Given their propensity to focus on conspiracy theories most have a notion of US influence in Pakistan that far exceeds our real capabilities. Sometimes I feel as the “Governor General” from a bygone past caught in a historic time warp. From the highest office down to mid level functionaries, perception becomes reality, when it comes to viewing US as the kingmaker. This mostly helps us in stacking the deck of cards in our favor but also works against us at times when diplomacy is seen as failing. Our dilemma is that our policy objectives are incongruous with popular sentiment of the people in Pakistan. Changing this is not merely a matter of perception and has to be more than a public relations exercise. It will require a significant change in our strategic trajectory.
2) The Social divide: Having served in Iraq I have experienced the divide between the elites and the common citizen, which is quite typical of the Middle East and South Asian countries. In Pakistan however it takes unparalleled heights. My first private party at a key ministers residence, the opulent lifestyle was in full contrast to the plight of those serving us. White gloved waiters were standing with ashtrays so that the corpulent minister and guests could smoke their Cuban cigars at will, and with utmost disdain flicker the ash at random intervals to be caught by the gloved waiters with unsurpassed dexterity. Alcohol, which is, otherwise not publicly displayed in this Islamic country was flowing from an open bar. Our hosts were shocked that most American guests did not drink. I was taken aback at the presence of so many blond Pakistani women, on inquiring was told by our bemused social secretary about the miracle of peroxide and modern hair coloring which seems to be the fashion statement of the day for well groomed (sic) modern Pakistani women. As we pulled out to leave, the sight of an army of drivers, was something to behold, huddled in the frigid night until the wee hours, for their masters to terminate their fracas. Service is legitimate but this smacked of servitude, opprobrium reminiscent of attitudes of European aristocracy and our own experience with slavery.
3) Hypocrisy a new dimension: I was stunned to hear form a very senior political functionary about US interference in the internal affairs of the country. When pointed out that this interference could be curtailed if the Government of Pakistan would refuse to take Billions of Dollars in US aid annually, his response was that monies were for services rendered in the fighting terrorism. Purloin of developmental funds to support the prodigious lifestyle of the ruling elite seems to be the normative. This can be only rationalized as a self-entitled narcissism of a collective of people with a rapacious appetite to loot the country.
4) The common man: My contact has been limited but even with limited exposure they continue to amaze me. In abject poverty and mired in the maelstrom of illiteracy they display a dignity and authenticity that is in stark contrast to the capriciousness of the pseudo westernized elites. Hospitable to a fault and honest despite being in the vortex of poverty the common everyday people of Pakistan display great ingenuity to survive against formidable odds. A gristle of the soul, that must come from a past rooted in spiritual life of a different sort.
5) Democracy: In Pakistan democracy has taken a dimension that borders on mockery of true representative government. The elected representatives come almost exclusively for the elite and privileged class. Rather than representing the populace they are more like local regional ‘viceroys’ representing the federal government and their own vested interests in the regions. Most are in politics not with a sense of public service but more to maximize the opportunity to make money, which they do with total disdain. The mainstream political parties are oligarchies controlled by the founding patriarchs or their heirs. One wonders if this is the model, we seek to perpetuate? Given my background as a history professor I have my druthers.
6) Alchemy of change: The polarization in the society makes significant change likely in the near future but given the deficit of leadership and organization it is not inevitable. This situation is unlikely to be remedied in the short term. If such a leadership were to emerge then conflict between the polarized segments would likely ensue. Under these circumstances we will not be able to count on the Military as a stabilizing force. The Military though a disciplined and well led, is a egalitarian body with much of its leadership and rank coming from middle, lower middle and poor classes. Their support of any move to perpetuate the rule of the elite will be at their own peril. The current military leadership is unlikely to prop the existing structure if such a conflict was to occur and possibly may even be catalytic toward such change. This is in stark departure form the past.
Pakistan is a fascinating place the contradictions are glaring but the promise is great,ironically what may be good for Pakistan may at least in the short term not be good for furtherance of our policy goals. We need to take a long view and it may be worthwhile to cut our losses, uncouple from the ruling elite and align our self with popular grassroots sentiment in the country. This would change our perception in the short term and when change does come we are for a change will be on the right side.
***
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Memo #2 Indian Ambassador to Pakistan
From: Sharat Sabharwal
Indian High Commissioner
Islamabad, Pakistan
To: Ministry of Foreign Affairs
New Delhi, India
Subject: Pakistan Sate of the Union-2010
December 10, 2010
End 2010 summary analysis on Pakistan is being forwarded. The detailed report is being sent separately by diplomatic pouch.
The Government of India (GOI) strategic planning directive for Pakistan of 2000 clearly states our aim; to undermine the Pakistan Sate internally and externally with the intent to weaken it to such an extent, where it does not pose any further threat to GOI regional goals. With this in mind we have executed a cohesive plan to internally disrupt the country and to undermine it on all international forums both overtly and covertly.
I am pleased to announce the Sate of the Union of Pakistan at the end of 2010, is currently most conducive for the furtherance of our goals. Our efforts over the last sixty-three years seem to be coming to fruition. The country has never been more polarized, lacking in leadership and economically weakened. We anticipate that the time is nearing when we will be able to achieve our strategic goals without use of overt military force. This will be the highest tribute to the teachings of ‘Chanakya' which we have so assiduously pursued.
Pakistan was created ostensibly in areas where Muslims were in majority. From its inception there was a divergence of goals resulting in a clear division. This dichotomy has persisted and has taken a institutional form. The two basic divisions are summarized: -
1) Group 1:Belonging to the mercantile classes, who wanted to protect and preserve their commercial and land interests. They formed the majority of the ruling class at partition and continue to do so today. We estimate it to be about five to ten percent of the population. To summarize, this group is characterized by being: -
a) Mostly secularized and westernized: They do practice religion nominally and have maintained its cultural trappings to a variable extent but in essence religion to them has become a cultural phenomena and no longer holds any significant sway on their worldview. It has no relevance to what they perceive as their geopolitical center of gravity.
b) Privileged and above law: They are almost completely above the law; in fact they are the law. If you are part of this group you are never stopped by the police if stopped you never have to go to the courts, if indicted you almost never go to prison. They never wait in line; an army of servants and facilitators help them live above the daily grind of what life is in Pakistan for the rest of the ninety percent.
c) Economic apartheid: This group has access to the best living conditions within palatial residential developments, gated communities with private security. They have access to the best country clubs, hotels, restaurants and golf courses. They have an inside track to lucrative jobs and contracts. They travel freely and are found shopping and entertaining more in Western and Mid Eastern capitals then in the country. It is an incestuous club, were every one has a net worth and a network they depend on. They all mutually help each other and thrive.
d) Educational apartheid: Their children go to elite schools mostly in the Cambridge system; the government (public) schools are not even an option for them. Once they have done there ‘A’ levels the majority leaves for universities in the West for higher education where they either end up staying or return only to work at the helm of family businesses or to lucrative jobs in the private or public sector.
e) This group is mostly Western and India centric; they have no intrinsic cultural values and have learnt to appreciate and adopt western and now Indian cultural norms as their own. Some even are nostalgic about being part of greater India and reaping the benefits of the economic boom. We need to work closely with their representatives and continue to emphasize the futility of partition. The cultural assault by Bollywood needs to continue and we need to use human rights and civil society organizations to infiltrate their ranks even further.
2) Group 2: A segment that wanted to lay the foundation of an Islamic State to be based on the laws derived from the Quran and the practice of The Prophet Muhammad (The Sunnah). This group has mostly degenerated into a pathetic and ineffective hoard, unable to articulate a vision or strategic leadership. It can be characterized by being:
a) Poorly educated: with focus on doctrinal minutiae and nuance, having lost track of the dynamic core of the universal message that was once a historic force and resulted in changing the geopolitical map of the world. Only a small group remains that is making efforts to revive this spirit but fortunately for us has found no traction.
b) Divisions into sects and subgroups: with esoteric doctrinal differences, but significant difference in strategic approach. Rather than agreeing on a minimal common platform they are at virtual war with each other. Unyielding and unwilling to accommodate any divergent opinion. They lack unity and a common purpose.
c) Absence of a cohesive and coherent alternative model: They have failed to articulate an alternative paradigm to our western developmental theory; nothing substantial that can catch the imagination of the masses.
d) Economically disenfranchised: They mostly come from the economic under privileged class though some members of the educated salaried middle class are increasingly joining them. This is a dangerous trend and we need to develop a cohesive plan to prevent this hemorrhage.
e) We have successively infiltrated their ranks and our agencies can instigate communal killings and sectarian violence almost at will. Our effort needs to continue to stoke the sectarian divide and prevent the educated middle class form focusing on the ideological imperative of returning to its foundational ideals. We need to prevent them from serious scholarship of their religious texts and continue to draw a wedge between them and their co religionists.
Having lost its moorings and ideological underpinning that kept it united the society has become fragmented to its constituent tribes and ethnicities. The leadership has disintegrated, and the lowest common denominator in the society has surfaced at the helm. The current so called leaders in large part are totally inept and almost universally corrupt, this combination is lethal for their country, but provides us with unfathomable opportunities.
The political parties continue to be weak, poorly lead and are mostly family run oligarchies, with the perennial quest for power without purpose, goals without ideals and family over merit. The resultant effect is dysfunctional parties that are, inept and ineffective. They lack internal democratic mechanism, which has resulted in the perpetuation of family fiefdoms. They do not have the capacity to bring about fundamental change the country needs.
The higher judiciaries has shown some independence but is stymied because of the overall weak and corrupt legal and criminal justice system, which is on the verge of collapse and does not serve the common good anymore. This has resulted in groups and individuals to take vigilante action, further weakening the writ of the state.
The real danger to the furtherance of our policy objective comes from the Armed Forces; despite our best efforts we have not been able to infiltrate their leadership. It is surprising that it derives its rank and file from such a highly fragmented polity, yet ends up in developing into a cohesive organization with common purpose. The Armed Forces are one of the very few meritocracies in the country with an egalitarian ethic and continues to be mostly well led. The greatest danger comes from its current leadership in General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. He comes from a non-elite background and can be termed as the ‘common soldier’s general’. He has transformed the Army in the last three years form its lowest ebb at the end of the Musharaf era, to where it is now again an elite force commanding respect and veneration of the people. His continuation in the leadership position is highly detrimental to our strategy. We need to continue to make efforts to undermine him and make his personality controversial.
We have so far succeeded in creating a civil military divide but if a nexus was to form between the military and civil society, a dangerous situation could evolve which could result in galvanizing the middle class with the potential of revolutionary transformation. This would be very detrimental to our strategic aims and objectives and should be avoided at all costs.
Danger also comes from the growing cadres of youth that are idealistic and for some reason large segments of them, especially those belonging to the middle and low middle classes, still carry an ideological zeal. They could be organized and become the nidus of resistance against the status quo. We need to continue the assault on this group through our media and other surrogates to dilute their fervor and to try and assimilate them into a South Asian culture mosaic that we successfully potentate.
The corruption of the political class and bureaucracy coupled with the extravagant lifestyles of the elite will ensure the continuation of a culture of dependency, which will keep the country on the brink of bankruptcy and help us make significant inroads. We do not see this changing in the near term; no change seems possible from within the political structure. Our concern remains about a nexus between the military and elements of civil society becoming an agent of change.
We hope this analysis will help in laying the premise for the strategic reappraisal that is currently taking place; I am looking forward to participating in the dialogue in New Delhi at the end of the month.
Jai Hind
***
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Memo#1 Embassy of Pakistan
From: Husain Haqqani
Ambassador of Pakistan to USA
Washington, DC
To: Asif Ali Zardari
President of Pakistan
I am happy to report that we have finally convinced the White House to send a formal invitation to you for an official visit to the US in 2011. Sir it was not easy, they were concerned that you may be under indictment by then, by either The Supreme Court of Pakistan or by the International Court of Justice. This resistance was however overcome given your deftness in dealing with the visiting American delegation and agreeing to an expanded role for Drones and US Special Forces in Pakistan. Please accept my congratulations on this diplomatic coup de grace.
We are creating a full agenda for your visit and have arranged for meetings with several real estate agents, who have assured us that they have prime real estate properties for your consideration. Given the recession here, if I may add, it is a good time to buy.
Ms Sara Palin has also shown interest in a “private” meeting, please advice if you would like to keep it very discrete and “private” or if a combined Press conference should be arranged at the end.
Several Ex-legislators who have been “wrongfully” accused of corruption and forced to resign like, Charles Rangel, Doc Hastings, Randy "Duke" Cunningham and Marsha Blackburn just to name a few have expressed interest for you to give a seminar on: 'How to survive as a “wrongfully" accused politician'. Please advice if this will be feasible. Be rest assured we will negotiate top fees for your appearance and you will be amply compensated for your valuable time.
The State Department wants General Kayani to accompany you. They have agreed that while you are busy with the real estate showings he will be meeting at the White House, State Department and Pentagon to discuss key policy issues. Please be reassured The Defense Attaché has been briefed to appraise you of the decisions on a daily basis. This carries the additional benefit that we can keep 'The Chief' under close observation. This should assuage your fear about The Military taking advantage of your absence.
Given the past difficulties in tracking the cabinet ministers in different nightclubs, the FBI has arranged for a special chartered plane to take them to Las Vegas for the weekend. Several Casino’s have been reserved and they will have ample opportunity to get entertained and keep out of site of the media.
The Co Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has shown interest in meeting some Hollywood Celebes; please be assured I am personally making contacts and adequate arrangements will be made. We are also arranging for special credit cards to be issued by the embassy to him and the accompanying ladies for their shopping pleasure.
Since you have kindly agreed to bring some opposition members along, please remember that Imran Khan can under no circumstances be brought; he has displayed extreme undiplomatic tendencies. Mr. Nawaz Sharif has declined to attend, and Mulana Fazal ur Rehamn does not present an image we want to project. Altaf Bahi is unlikely to risk leaving his self-imposed exile, Wali Khan and his groupies are too boisterous and The Choudhary's are too incoherent. It may be advisable to consider Kashmala Tariq and Marvi Memon, they are quite benign and have pretty faces for television. They will be pleased by this gesture and it may help in toning down their rhetoric at home.
Talking about image it will help to bring several key women members and advisors, preferable good-looking ones sans Fuzia Wahab she, as they say here in the west, 'has a good face for the radio’. We need to blunt the impression Aafia Siddiqui has created and show the positive side(s) of Pakistani women.
Please be also advised that we are arranging several meetings with the Pakistani American Community here in the DC Virginia area. They will be screened and we will make sure all miscreants are weeded out. It will not be possible as requested by His Excellency the Minister for Interior Mr. Rehman Malik, that shoes should not be allowed inside the hall. Unless you feel, it will be safer to conduct these meetings in a Mosque, in which case we will be happy to arrange. This may carry the risk of confrontation between the “Maulwi Types" and “Enlightened Moderates” and has its pros and cons. Please have The Minister of Defense carry a study on this matter; he seems to have plenty of time since the Defense Ministry is working despite his input.
Sir can I also in the end bring to your attention a trivial matter, please do remind the Foreign Minister about the issue of my extension, it is due for renewal next month.
Praying for you health, continued success and completion of your ‘Awami’ mandate. God save Pakistan.
***
Wonder what happened to all those Wikileaks? Weren't there thousands and thousands of cables they were slowly sifting through?
***
Memo #3 US Ambassador Robert Munter
From: Robert Munter
US Ambassador to Pakistan
Islamabad, Pakistan
To: Assistant Secretary of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affair
Department of State
Washington, DC
Date: December 31, 2010
Re: Pakistan the first quarter
Having been in Pakistan since October, I am forwarding a brief review of my first personal impressions.
1) View about America: Survey after survey has shown that the populace at large has very unfavorable views about US government and policy. The perception in the corridors of power is very different. Given their propensity to focus on conspiracy theories most have a notion of US influence in Pakistan that far exceeds our real capabilities. Sometimes I feel as the “Governor General” from a bygone past caught in a historic time warp. From the highest office down to mid level functionaries, perception becomes reality, when it comes to viewing US as the kingmaker. This mostly helps us in stacking the deck of cards in our favor but also works against us at times when diplomacy is seen as failing. Our dilemma is that our policy objectives are incongruous with popular sentiment of the people in Pakistan. Changing this is not merely a matter of perception and has to be more than a public relations exercise. It will require a significant change in our strategic trajectory.
2) The Social divide: Having served in Iraq I have experienced the divide between the elites and the common citizen, which is quite typical of the Middle East and South Asian countries. In Pakistan however it takes unparalleled heights. My first private party at a key ministers residence, the opulent lifestyle was in full contrast to the plight of those serving us. White gloved waiters were standing with ashtrays so that the corpulent minister and guests could smoke their Cuban cigars at will, and with utmost disdain flicker the ash at random intervals to be caught by the gloved waiters with unsurpassed dexterity. Alcohol, which is, otherwise not publicly displayed in this Islamic country was flowing from an open bar. Our hosts were shocked that most American guests did not drink. I was taken aback at the presence of so many blond Pakistani women, on inquiring was told by our bemused social secretary about the miracle of peroxide and modern hair coloring which seems to be the fashion statement of the day for well groomed (sic) modern Pakistani women. As we pulled out to leave, the sight of an army of drivers, was something to behold, huddled in the frigid night until the wee hours, for their masters to terminate their fracas. Service is legitimate but this smacked of servitude, opprobrium reminiscent of attitudes of European aristocracy and our own experience with slavery.
3) Hypocrisy a new dimension: I was stunned to hear form a very senior political functionary about US interference in the internal affairs of the country. When pointed out that this interference could be curtailed if the Government of Pakistan would refuse to take Billions of Dollars in US aid annually, his response was that monies were for services rendered in the fighting terrorism. Purloin of developmental funds to support the prodigious lifestyle of the ruling elite seems to be the normative. This can be only rationalized as a self-entitled narcissism of a collective of people with a rapacious appetite to loot the country.
4) The common man: My contact has been limited but even with limited exposure they continue to amaze me. In abject poverty and mired in the maelstrom of illiteracy they display a dignity and authenticity that is in stark contrast to the capriciousness of the pseudo westernized elites. Hospitable to a fault and honest despite being in the vortex of poverty the common everyday people of Pakistan display great ingenuity to survive against formidable odds. A gristle of the soul, that must come from a past rooted in spiritual life of a different sort.
5) Democracy: In Pakistan democracy has taken a dimension that borders on mockery of true representative government. The elected representatives come almost exclusively for the elite and privileged class. Rather than representing the populace they are more like local regional ‘viceroys’ representing the federal government and their own vested interests in the regions. Most are in politics not with a sense of public service but more to maximize the opportunity to make money, which they do with total disdain. The mainstream political parties are oligarchies controlled by the founding patriarchs or their heirs. One wonders if this is the model, we seek to perpetuate? Given my background as a history professor I have my druthers.
6) Alchemy of change: The polarization in the society makes significant change likely in the near future but given the deficit of leadership and organization it is not inevitable. This situation is unlikely to be remedied in the short term. If such a leadership were to emerge then conflict between the polarized segments would likely ensue. Under these circumstances we will not be able to count on the Military as a stabilizing force. The Military though a disciplined and well led, is a egalitarian body with much of its leadership and rank coming from middle, lower middle and poor classes. Their support of any move to perpetuate the rule of the elite will be at their own peril. The current military leadership is unlikely to prop the existing structure if such a conflict was to occur and possibly may even be catalytic toward such change. This is in stark departure form the past.
Pakistan is a fascinating place the contradictions are glaring but the promise is great,ironically what may be good for Pakistan may at least in the short term not be good for furtherance of our policy goals. We need to take a long view and it may be worthwhile to cut our losses, uncouple from the ruling elite and align our self with popular grassroots sentiment in the country. This would change our perception in the short term and when change does come we are for a change will be on the right side.
***
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Memo #2 Indian Ambassador to Pakistan
From: Sharat Sabharwal
Indian High Commissioner
Islamabad, Pakistan
To: Ministry of Foreign Affairs
New Delhi, India
Subject: Pakistan Sate of the Union-2010
December 10, 2010
End 2010 summary analysis on Pakistan is being forwarded. The detailed report is being sent separately by diplomatic pouch.
The Government of India (GOI) strategic planning directive for Pakistan of 2000 clearly states our aim; to undermine the Pakistan Sate internally and externally with the intent to weaken it to such an extent, where it does not pose any further threat to GOI regional goals. With this in mind we have executed a cohesive plan to internally disrupt the country and to undermine it on all international forums both overtly and covertly.
I am pleased to announce the Sate of the Union of Pakistan at the end of 2010, is currently most conducive for the furtherance of our goals. Our efforts over the last sixty-three years seem to be coming to fruition. The country has never been more polarized, lacking in leadership and economically weakened. We anticipate that the time is nearing when we will be able to achieve our strategic goals without use of overt military force. This will be the highest tribute to the teachings of ‘Chanakya' which we have so assiduously pursued.
Pakistan was created ostensibly in areas where Muslims were in majority. From its inception there was a divergence of goals resulting in a clear division. This dichotomy has persisted and has taken a institutional form. The two basic divisions are summarized: -
1) Group 1:Belonging to the mercantile classes, who wanted to protect and preserve their commercial and land interests. They formed the majority of the ruling class at partition and continue to do so today. We estimate it to be about five to ten percent of the population. To summarize, this group is characterized by being: -
a) Mostly secularized and westernized: They do practice religion nominally and have maintained its cultural trappings to a variable extent but in essence religion to them has become a cultural phenomena and no longer holds any significant sway on their worldview. It has no relevance to what they perceive as their geopolitical center of gravity.
b) Privileged and above law: They are almost completely above the law; in fact they are the law. If you are part of this group you are never stopped by the police if stopped you never have to go to the courts, if indicted you almost never go to prison. They never wait in line; an army of servants and facilitators help them live above the daily grind of what life is in Pakistan for the rest of the ninety percent.
c) Economic apartheid: This group has access to the best living conditions within palatial residential developments, gated communities with private security. They have access to the best country clubs, hotels, restaurants and golf courses. They have an inside track to lucrative jobs and contracts. They travel freely and are found shopping and entertaining more in Western and Mid Eastern capitals then in the country. It is an incestuous club, were every one has a net worth and a network they depend on. They all mutually help each other and thrive.
d) Educational apartheid: Their children go to elite schools mostly in the Cambridge system; the government (public) schools are not even an option for them. Once they have done there ‘A’ levels the majority leaves for universities in the West for higher education where they either end up staying or return only to work at the helm of family businesses or to lucrative jobs in the private or public sector.
e) This group is mostly Western and India centric; they have no intrinsic cultural values and have learnt to appreciate and adopt western and now Indian cultural norms as their own. Some even are nostalgic about being part of greater India and reaping the benefits of the economic boom. We need to work closely with their representatives and continue to emphasize the futility of partition. The cultural assault by Bollywood needs to continue and we need to use human rights and civil society organizations to infiltrate their ranks even further.
2) Group 2: A segment that wanted to lay the foundation of an Islamic State to be based on the laws derived from the Quran and the practice of The Prophet Muhammad (The Sunnah). This group has mostly degenerated into a pathetic and ineffective hoard, unable to articulate a vision or strategic leadership. It can be characterized by being:
a) Poorly educated: with focus on doctrinal minutiae and nuance, having lost track of the dynamic core of the universal message that was once a historic force and resulted in changing the geopolitical map of the world. Only a small group remains that is making efforts to revive this spirit but fortunately for us has found no traction.
b) Divisions into sects and subgroups: with esoteric doctrinal differences, but significant difference in strategic approach. Rather than agreeing on a minimal common platform they are at virtual war with each other. Unyielding and unwilling to accommodate any divergent opinion. They lack unity and a common purpose.
c) Absence of a cohesive and coherent alternative model: They have failed to articulate an alternative paradigm to our western developmental theory; nothing substantial that can catch the imagination of the masses.
d) Economically disenfranchised: They mostly come from the economic under privileged class though some members of the educated salaried middle class are increasingly joining them. This is a dangerous trend and we need to develop a cohesive plan to prevent this hemorrhage.
e) We have successively infiltrated their ranks and our agencies can instigate communal killings and sectarian violence almost at will. Our effort needs to continue to stoke the sectarian divide and prevent the educated middle class form focusing on the ideological imperative of returning to its foundational ideals. We need to prevent them from serious scholarship of their religious texts and continue to draw a wedge between them and their co religionists.
Having lost its moorings and ideological underpinning that kept it united the society has become fragmented to its constituent tribes and ethnicities. The leadership has disintegrated, and the lowest common denominator in the society has surfaced at the helm. The current so called leaders in large part are totally inept and almost universally corrupt, this combination is lethal for their country, but provides us with unfathomable opportunities.
The political parties continue to be weak, poorly lead and are mostly family run oligarchies, with the perennial quest for power without purpose, goals without ideals and family over merit. The resultant effect is dysfunctional parties that are, inept and ineffective. They lack internal democratic mechanism, which has resulted in the perpetuation of family fiefdoms. They do not have the capacity to bring about fundamental change the country needs.
The higher judiciaries has shown some independence but is stymied because of the overall weak and corrupt legal and criminal justice system, which is on the verge of collapse and does not serve the common good anymore. This has resulted in groups and individuals to take vigilante action, further weakening the writ of the state.
The real danger to the furtherance of our policy objective comes from the Armed Forces; despite our best efforts we have not been able to infiltrate their leadership. It is surprising that it derives its rank and file from such a highly fragmented polity, yet ends up in developing into a cohesive organization with common purpose. The Armed Forces are one of the very few meritocracies in the country with an egalitarian ethic and continues to be mostly well led. The greatest danger comes from its current leadership in General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. He comes from a non-elite background and can be termed as the ‘common soldier’s general’. He has transformed the Army in the last three years form its lowest ebb at the end of the Musharaf era, to where it is now again an elite force commanding respect and veneration of the people. His continuation in the leadership position is highly detrimental to our strategy. We need to continue to make efforts to undermine him and make his personality controversial.
We have so far succeeded in creating a civil military divide but if a nexus was to form between the military and civil society, a dangerous situation could evolve which could result in galvanizing the middle class with the potential of revolutionary transformation. This would be very detrimental to our strategic aims and objectives and should be avoided at all costs.
Danger also comes from the growing cadres of youth that are idealistic and for some reason large segments of them, especially those belonging to the middle and low middle classes, still carry an ideological zeal. They could be organized and become the nidus of resistance against the status quo. We need to continue the assault on this group through our media and other surrogates to dilute their fervor and to try and assimilate them into a South Asian culture mosaic that we successfully potentate.
The corruption of the political class and bureaucracy coupled with the extravagant lifestyles of the elite will ensure the continuation of a culture of dependency, which will keep the country on the brink of bankruptcy and help us make significant inroads. We do not see this changing in the near term; no change seems possible from within the political structure. Our concern remains about a nexus between the military and elements of civil society becoming an agent of change.
We hope this analysis will help in laying the premise for the strategic reappraisal that is currently taking place; I am looking forward to participating in the dialogue in New Delhi at the end of the month.
Jai Hind
***
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Memo#1 Embassy of Pakistan
From: Husain Haqqani
Ambassador of Pakistan to USA
Washington, DC
To: Asif Ali Zardari
President of Pakistan
I am happy to report that we have finally convinced the White House to send a formal invitation to you for an official visit to the US in 2011. Sir it was not easy, they were concerned that you may be under indictment by then, by either The Supreme Court of Pakistan or by the International Court of Justice. This resistance was however overcome given your deftness in dealing with the visiting American delegation and agreeing to an expanded role for Drones and US Special Forces in Pakistan. Please accept my congratulations on this diplomatic coup de grace.
We are creating a full agenda for your visit and have arranged for meetings with several real estate agents, who have assured us that they have prime real estate properties for your consideration. Given the recession here, if I may add, it is a good time to buy.
Ms Sara Palin has also shown interest in a “private” meeting, please advice if you would like to keep it very discrete and “private” or if a combined Press conference should be arranged at the end.
Several Ex-legislators who have been “wrongfully” accused of corruption and forced to resign like, Charles Rangel, Doc Hastings, Randy "Duke" Cunningham and Marsha Blackburn just to name a few have expressed interest for you to give a seminar on: 'How to survive as a “wrongfully" accused politician'. Please advice if this will be feasible. Be rest assured we will negotiate top fees for your appearance and you will be amply compensated for your valuable time.
The State Department wants General Kayani to accompany you. They have agreed that while you are busy with the real estate showings he will be meeting at the White House, State Department and Pentagon to discuss key policy issues. Please be reassured The Defense Attaché has been briefed to appraise you of the decisions on a daily basis. This carries the additional benefit that we can keep 'The Chief' under close observation. This should assuage your fear about The Military taking advantage of your absence.
Given the past difficulties in tracking the cabinet ministers in different nightclubs, the FBI has arranged for a special chartered plane to take them to Las Vegas for the weekend. Several Casino’s have been reserved and they will have ample opportunity to get entertained and keep out of site of the media.
The Co Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has shown interest in meeting some Hollywood Celebes; please be assured I am personally making contacts and adequate arrangements will be made. We are also arranging for special credit cards to be issued by the embassy to him and the accompanying ladies for their shopping pleasure.
Since you have kindly agreed to bring some opposition members along, please remember that Imran Khan can under no circumstances be brought; he has displayed extreme undiplomatic tendencies. Mr. Nawaz Sharif has declined to attend, and Mulana Fazal ur Rehamn does not present an image we want to project. Altaf Bahi is unlikely to risk leaving his self-imposed exile, Wali Khan and his groupies are too boisterous and The Choudhary's are too incoherent. It may be advisable to consider Kashmala Tariq and Marvi Memon, they are quite benign and have pretty faces for television. They will be pleased by this gesture and it may help in toning down their rhetoric at home.
Talking about image it will help to bring several key women members and advisors, preferable good-looking ones sans Fuzia Wahab she, as they say here in the west, 'has a good face for the radio’. We need to blunt the impression Aafia Siddiqui has created and show the positive side(s) of Pakistani women.
Please be also advised that we are arranging several meetings with the Pakistani American Community here in the DC Virginia area. They will be screened and we will make sure all miscreants are weeded out. It will not be possible as requested by His Excellency the Minister for Interior Mr. Rehman Malik, that shoes should not be allowed inside the hall. Unless you feel, it will be safer to conduct these meetings in a Mosque, in which case we will be happy to arrange. This may carry the risk of confrontation between the “Maulwi Types" and “Enlightened Moderates” and has its pros and cons. Please have The Minister of Defense carry a study on this matter; he seems to have plenty of time since the Defense Ministry is working despite his input.
Sir can I also in the end bring to your attention a trivial matter, please do remind the Foreign Minister about the issue of my extension, it is due for renewal next month.
Praying for you health, continued success and completion of your ‘Awami’ mandate. God save Pakistan.
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