Tuesday 1 November 2011

PTI - The hope and optimism sweeping Pakistan

Friends –

Two days ago Imran Khan held a huge rally in Lahore, at Minto Park, the same location where the Pakistan resolution was passed by the Muslim League back in 1940, calling for an independent Muslim majority state in British India. Imran Khan’s rally could be just as historic an event as the one back in 1940. Whilst the rally was well publicized using social media, and was expected to be big, it exceeded all expectations. Estimates run from between 60,000 to 400,000 in attendance. Independent estimates seem to run towards the middle of this range, which is a massive figure for a city of around 8 million. By all accounts it has been the largest political gathering in Lahore since 1986, the year I was born. And no, they were not gathering to cheer my birth back in 1986, but rather to cheer Benazir Bhutto, who returned to Pakistan from exile.


But in addition to attracting sheer numbers, the rally was peaceful and well organized. No security incidents. Young boys and girls were both present in large numbers, and according to one newspaper report, there was no eve teasing – if you have been anywhere near Pakistan, let’s say even if you’ve been to India, you would understand how big an accomplishment this is for everyone involved. Imran Khan did not use bullet proof glass, as has become necessary in all other large rallies around the country. Major Pakistani bands performed, galvanizing the youth in support of Imran Khan, and also providing a much needed open air party in a tough security environment (Imran Khan subscribes to a few “right wing” ideas, such as ending US drone strikes over Pakistani territory, which is probably why he is able to keep the radicals at a safe distance).

Imran Khan, the captain of Pakistan’s 1992 Cricket World Cup winning team, formed the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), or Pakistan Justice Movement, in 1996, after he successfully completed fund raising for a cancer hospital, built in memory of his mother. He stood from seven constituencies in the 1997 elections and was unsuccessful in each one. This was a huge shock at the time, especially considering that he was such a popular national figure – rural, feudal and uneducated Pakistan just didn’t seem to care about his reformist agenda. In 2002, Khan managed to get elected from his home constituency of Mianwali, but only after some very heavy engagement with the community. He was the only candidate from of his party to be elected to the National Assembly, which consisted of 272 elected members. This was also a disappointing result. The party was all but written off as a one man show, with the one man being an ego-maniac and political amateur, who could only manage to win his own seat and that too after some very concentrated effort. In 2008, he boycotted the elections, which made him look like a bad sport.

All along this period, however, he has attracted more than his fair share of attention from the media, and has always been considered a national leader, especially by the educated urban middle class. His ideas, however, are often hawkish – thus his reputation for being a political amateur. He was a key pro-democracy figure through the late Musharraf years, even though he had initially supported Musharraf. He was one of the key media figures in the 2008 long march against Musharraf. There has always been a raging debate in the middle class about whether one should support Imran Khan. He seems to be decent policy-wise and holds impeccable integrity in a field, and even in a country, where integrity seems to be turning into an extremely rare quality. But if he doesn’t have what it takes to move the masses, then one’s vote on him might be wasted. He and especially other members of his party might be too far above the electorate which might not be used to dealing with leaders who are not tribal or feudal - or just simply playing the political game by spewing out empty, uneducated political rhetoric.


But the Lahore rally has shown us that this is no longer the case - Imran Khan's and the PTI's fortunes are finally taking a sharp turn. Urbanization, education and a large youth demographic, coupled with new tools such as mobile phones and social media seem to be working in Imran Khan’s and the wider PTI’s favor. 40% of the constituencies in the National Assembly are now considered to be urban. It is expected that his party’s candidates will give the large traditional parties, the PPP and PML-N, a very tough time across the country in these urban constituencies, especially in the largest province of Punjab. In this province, which contitutes 50% of the country, the population is disillusioned with the performance of both the PPP (leading the Federal Government), and the PML-N (leading the Punjab Government). PTI’s candidates have already done well in a few by-elections, and the youth really seem to be becoming politicized again, after a generation or so of complete disillusionment with the political system.

So I am really excited for and optimistic about Pakistan’s future and strongly support the PTI. Even if Imran Khan does not win an outright majority, he is expected to become a large and powerful part of opposition in parliament. He can play a really constructive role in opposition and wait for momentum to further shift in his direction till the 2018 elections. I urge you to support him as well – you can start by registering as a member of the PTI on http://www.insaf.pk – the website is not very good, so please be patient and bear with it. I hope the PTI is able to attract some great volunteer talent between now and the 2013 elections to fix things like its website, and its social media operations, and generate that extra bit of support which can make all the difference. I would be happy to volunteer during the summers of 2012 and 2013.

Saturday 22 October 2011

On QR Codes - The future is here

 
Friends –



I am seriously impressed with QR Code technology. QR codes are sets of black and white pixels, typically measuring 1.5 cm by 1.5 cm, which can hold lots of rich data. They're similar to barcodes, which hold only numeric data, more specifically a set of 11 digits, which can be used to identify any product in the world. In fact, the Universal Product Code, which maps the numeric data represented by barcodes onto product information that can be used for example by supermarkets, was developed by McKinsey & Company, who were hired by the US National Association of Food Chains (NAFC) back in the 1970s.



30 to 40 years later, we are taking the next big leap in technology. Compared to barcodes, QR codes can hold thousands of rich alphanumeric, even Kanji (Japanese script) characters. They hold enormous potential for condensifying, standardizing and ultimately simplifying data capture across multiple types of interactions - business to business (B2B), business to consumer (B2C) and consumer to consumer (C2C). Originally developed as a B2B tool for supply chains and production lines, I have personally seen QR codes in action now on three different fronts, and that too sitting here in Nairobi (I guess that's why they call it Silicon Savannah).



One very obvious use is to very quickly and easily digitize a long, complicated, tedious and/or seemingly meaningless analogue text string. For example, some commercial advertisements in the Economist now contain QR codes, which are links to long and complicated URLs. You like something you saw in the magazine - instead of typing in the URL, which might be a tedious task, simply scan the QR code and go straight to the product website. Up to 4,000 characters can be stored in that tiny 1.5 cm by 1.5 cm space. QR codes are now being placed on flyers, pamphlets, brochures, business cards - or anywhere one might want to place or replace a URL.



At our Juhudi regional managers' meeting recently, we used QR codes to simplify the process of installing a new smartphone application, which we have developed and are rolling out to streamline some of Juhudi's operations. As we were training our regional managers to install this new application, we felt like agents from the future, in some sort of sci-fi movie - and even though in this particular case, even a long complicated text URL sent by e-mail might have worked (the tedious stuff needed to be digitized only once, and then could be shared easily in simple digital text format), not all our regional managers access their e-mail on their phones (which someone should seriously train them to do). Setting up mobile e-mail access for those who don't already have it would have been quite complicated (would have brought up issues of passwords, privacy, etc.), so the QR codes simplified our lives.



Finally, a friend here in Nairobi has co-founded NikoHapa, a mobile based loyalty tracking and social networking program for retail outlets and retail customers. It's similar to Subway stamps, from back in the day. You received a stamp for each visit to Subway, which you could paste onto a card. Once all 10 stamps on the card were complete, you could turn the card in to receive a free foot-long sandwich. I also recall from back in the day that some Subway outlets had discontinued the scheme due to rampant forgery and fraud. A friend of mine, who became very loyal to Subway because of the scheme (legend has it that he didn't eat anywhere else), was not very happy when he found out that his 7 or so left over stamps were no longer in use. Just overnight, loyalty turned into a massive boycott.



NikoHapa is fully digitized and linked to a phone account, which presumably helps prevent or minimize fraud - but there is also a social networking element to it, which cuts across multiple chains and outlets - your friends can see all the places you have visited (or 'stamps' that you have collected). What's more is that NikoHapa uses QR code stickers as 'stamps' to simplify the process of capturing a visit. There's also an SMS alternative, where one has to type in a code and send it across to a short-code number - obviously much more tedious. So I wonder if many NikoHapa users are using the QR coded stickers. As the use of smartphones becomes more widespread and people familiarize themselves with these codes, everyone should be using them and SMS should become redundant.



So if you have an Android smartphone, download the free application called "Barcode Scanner" and get started. Find a QR code - any QR code. Scan it in. Experience the ease and simplicity of the process. The joy as green dots appear on the screen, showing successful capture. Prepare yourself for the future.



In case you're unable to find a QR code, here's the QR code for the Mambo Jambo Salama URL:

Thursday 6 October 2011

Efficiency at the Base of the Pyramid

Efficiency doesn’t come naturally to the Base of the Pyramid. Everyone needs to understand it. Someone needs to champion it. Our low income customers eventually benefit.

Let’s start by decoupling funding and operations. Operations are often treated like a black box – money goes in, and money (also let’s not forget social impact) comes out. Funding is often the focus – “Given my operating model, and my social mission and social impact, can you provide me with funding?” said the CFO to an impact investor – or even a grant funder. Some impact investors will turn around and say, “I think you need to tweak your operating model to become more efficient”. Time for the CFO to move on to the next investor or funder – according to one CFO in the sector, there’s a list of 300 investors they can approach, and basic funnel dynamics tell you that at least a handful can be converted, no matter what the underlying model looks like. Blame it on the ego of that particular impact investor – some of these conversations do tend to degenerate into pissing contests, and it takes incredible soft skills to manage some of the people in this otherwise well-meaning space. But it’s very easy for things get murky – and inefficient.

At a recent dinner conversation I heard the inside story of a ‘Social enterprise’ with USD 7 m in costs, and USD 500 k in revenues. It is a large and well respected organization, doing some terrific work and it has been around for 20 years. For each of these 20 years, costs have exceeded revenues by at least 4 times, and this gap has been plugged by grant funding. It sells an engineering product to deep rural customers. Deep rural distribution can be very costly, especially when it’s for a new innovative product, one which requires a large capital outlay on the part of the end user – not just soap, shampoo and SIM cards which are readily sold in standard mini bite sized chunks.

But the organization is engineering and technology centric, with a good, charismatic and well-connected fund raising team. They are able to excite grant funders year after year and keep the operating model going. The painful exercise of reviewing the operating model and bridging this enormous gap between costs and revenues requires an operations and business strategy centric ex-consultant (not that I am offering my services here) to come in, and make a few game changing changes. There has to be a lot of latent value which can be captured to bridge this gap – geographic footprint optimization, partnerships with other players e.g. MFIs (not that I am offering Juhudi’s support here), performance management systems, etc.

On this note – as an MFI we get many requests for partnerships. In fact we get so many, we are often a little under water. On a given day at least 2 people will walk into our offices and pitch their product or idea to us. On some days we get to do nothing but meet these social entrepreneurs and potential partners. They want both, access to our deep rural loan groups, and want us to administer the loans, which makes sense because as an MFI we have the systems and processes to do this very well. Many of these conversations have resulted in new products, some of which have been tremendously successful – a win-win for all.

But I often wonder why players try to over specialize in rural distribution at the base of the pyramid. It is just so inefficient – and emanates from an urban ‘complexity economics’ mindset, where greater complexity and specialization has been the key source of our collective expanding wealth.

In my view, sales and distribution across multiple players, products and functions has to be consolidated at the base of the pyramid, if we are to deliver efficiency to our low income customers. We have to learn to be good in two or three areas, if we want to realize our true potential. I like to use my cricket analogy. Traditionally, or even as recently as back in the 80s and 90s, a typical cricket player was either a good batsman or bowler or just a specialist a wicket-keeper. Fielding was never really considered a key skill until Jonty Rhodes from South Africa showed everyone in the late 90s just how much of a difference good fielding can make (and he could do nothing else but field). Over time the Aussies realized that if they could push every player to be good in at least two of these four disciplines, they could hold a very serious edge over any other team. They found many players, who were meeting these standards, and this set the new bar – they dominated cricket for the best part of a decade. Now every player in every good team, be it India, Sri Lanka, South Africa, England or even Pakistan has to meet this bar. Australia has finally been unseated – cricket has never been this exciting or competitive.

Similarly, we need to have organizations at the base of the pyramid which, for example, can both administer loans, and build rural value chains – often getting directly operationally involved in both areas. As social enterprises, we often don’t have a natural incentive to consider efficiency. But if we look at the for profit sector, there are plenty of examples of efficiency emerging naturally from the system. For example, it’s what the traditional seed and fertilizer input providers have realized holds enormous value. They have to go out and visit all these farmers anyway – why not finance their seed in addition to selling it to them as well?

Simple MFI is another beast. It’s an incredible innovation, and I am currently trying to catalyze its business development, so that the sector can benefit from it. It’s an Android smartphone application designed to transform Microfinance operations. Deployment of Simple MFI, along with a broader streamlining of systems and operations can shave 3 to 4 percentage points off the interest rate charged by MFIs to their clients – and at the same time reduce clutter, reporting errors, fraud, and other operational risks. Yet, it is a very hard sell. For some MFIs, it brings out too many legacy systems and operational issues – skeletons they would rather keep in their closets. For others, efficiency is just not a concern – especially when they are satisfied on the funding side, and the model is “sustainable”.  In fact “sustainability” is one of the most dangerous terms in social enterprise – I shall cover it in another blog post on another day.

In the meantime, I feel like a door to door salesman with my pitch pack and little IDEOS phone. I am sure it will take off eventually – buts lots of hard work is in store until then. And it was always going to be a challenge. Championing efficiency requires both leadership within an organization and also collaboration across organizations. I was recently reading a great, super insightful book by Antony Bugg-Levine and Jed Emerson, titled “Impact Investing”. According to the authors the social enterprise space is maturing, where the old charismatic cheerleaders are being replaced by people with hard and soft business skills, who will eventually bring things like efficiency to the sector. It adds a bit of clarity to the first part of my previous post on Social Enterprise and Impact Investment (http://mambojambosalama.blogspot.com/2011/09/on-social-enterprise-impact-investment.html). This is the start of the age of the less visible champions – but champions nevertheless. Keep championing.

Sunday 25 September 2011

On George Fulton, Dubai and Imran Khan

George Fulton is an interesting character. He’s big. He’s Caucasian. He’s Pakistani.

Here’s a picture:
George Fulton started out as a British national who came to Pakistan as a BBC World producer, looking to produce current affairs programming tailored for a Pakistani audience. Pakistan happens to be one of the few countries where people still watch BBC World.

Whilst in Pakistan, he got involved in a local reality TV show called “George ka Pakistan” (George’s Pakistan), as the lead character. The challenge for him was to travel around Pakistan, and become a Pakistani within 3 months, or 12 episodes. At the end of the show, viewers would judge through SMS voting, whether or not George had done enough to deserve to become a Pakistani.

He travelled all over the country – milked cows in the villages and raced donkey carts in the cities – but more so than just being captured on camera being part of some superficial shenanigans, he seemed to bring a very interesting sort of intellectual depth to the show, and really tried to understand the political, social and cultural fabric of the country, for all its breadth, richness and complexity – and as he often pointed out, its contradictions. He hung out with the elite business class in Karachi, drove around with politicians (feudal lords) in some of the villages; in addition to all the antics and cultural rituals that he took part in with a diverse set of common folk across the length and breadth of the country.

He has a great, very likeable personality, and was very comfortable on screen. Needless to say, he was extremely popular, and the audience voted overwhelmingly in favor of him becoming a Pakistani. Around the same time, he met a Pakistani girl from a typical educated upper middle class background called Kiran, and married her. I presume he also converted to Islam (even though I am not one to judge, I presume this was done in order to make the marriage acceptable to the bride’s side of the family – cross cultural marriages and the religious conversions around them are such messy business, but often essential for making things happen). I am not exactly sure how he obtained his Pakistani citizenship, but my guess is that the marriage paved the way for it. He now holds a Pakistani passport.

He stayed back in Pakistan with Kiran for several years, living in Karachi. Initially, he started a current affairs talk show on a local channel, but it was not particularly successful. Later, he paired up with Kiran and started a breakfast talk show, which was more successful, called “Kiran aur George” (Kiran and George) – the audience loved watching a white guy talk about anything and everything related to everyday life in Pakistan, especially his attempts at speaking Urdu – the on screen chemistry between this rather peculiar couple was really good, including his cheeky antics followed by Kiran’s playful slaps on his shoulder. That show ran for quite a bit, but has now stopped airing.

They have left Pakistan now, and settled back in the UK. He has still been writing regularly for the Pakistani press. In fact he has been writing for a while now, but I have only recently discovered some of his work. He writes extremely well.

His April 2010 piece on Dubai is a timeless classic.


It echoes the sentiments shared by many but which I largely disagree with. It is still a very well written piece and an important thought provoking read.

His article in yesterday’s paper on Imran Khan was also interesting.


Imran Khan is Pakistan’s former cricket captain turned politician, a national hero for winning the 1992 cricket World Cup against some serious odds, and later for building a cancer hospital in Lahore by mobilizing donations from the public. His political career and personal life have been less stellar though – he married Jemima Goldsmith, a British socialite, but she struggled to settle into life in Pakistan, so he had to separate from her and their two kids – his politics are controversial, and he hasn’t been able to gain much traction as a politician; he has strong right wing tendencies, a soft spot for the religious extremists, but more so than anything, very little popular appeal and a tendency to seriously flip flop on some important issues.

This time, I agree with most of what George Fulton has set out in his article. Imran Khan is an interesting character, and for all his faults, he is still the best option we have for 2013 (barring Musharraf and the Army, who for matters of principle will not be allowed to make a comeback, at least not yet – even though their political capital has slowly been replenishing, especially after 3 years of Zardari – sub pe bhari i.e. a burden on everyone – and a general sense of disillusionment with all the other available options).

Here’s an illustration of the political options we have for 2013, based on my classic and trademarked “3-cardinal-sins in public service” framework. Each sin is scored from 0% to 100%, with 100% being the worst place for a candidate to be in from our perspective (at my discretion scores can exceed 100% as well, but this is only when I am really trying to hammer through a point). The candidate with the lowest net score or the lowest number of “net evil points” wins:

The 3-cardinal-sins in public service
Sharifs
Zardari
Chaudhrys of Gujrat
Imran Khan
Musharraf (without Chaudhrys?)
Army
Apathy
50%
105%
60%
0%
0%
30%
Lack of integrity
80%
110%
80%
0%
0%
30%
Lack of competence
60%
80%
70%
80%
50%
50%
Net evil points
190%
295%
210%
80%
50%
110%



So with the two right most columns not an option, Imran Khan is perhaps our best option. He even comes quite close to Musharraf, who in my view shares Imran Khan’s genuine passion for the country, and strong integrity, but is quite a bit more skillful and competent.

But as George Fulton points out in his article, there are a few things Imran Khan needs to change.

First of all, politics is a game of maneuverability in a structurally constrained space, which often means compromise. As principled as he is, which ordinarily would be a great thing, he also seems to be unelectable – and clearly unacceptable to many of the key power players who wield influence over Pakistan. He has to show greater flexibility on some issues, and hold back on his rhetoric on others – at least for the sake of the greater good.

Secondly, he does hold a very serious “Messiah complex”. So far he has failed to build a movement around himself – he needs to change tack and focus on building it around the institution that he represents and around its ideas or key messages. We certainly require a bit of his personality to seed it, and to provide it with a foundation, but his persona alone, is not going to be enough.

On this, he is almost delusional – I heard him speak at the LSE a few years ago, back when I was a student there, where he drew parallels between himself and the Prophet Mohammad, and how the early years of the Prophet were also a struggle. The pronoun he uses needs to change. Less “I”, more “we”. He hasn’t received an official mandate from God (and cannot, given that Mohammad is the last prophet in Islam), so he needs to do something drastically different to turn his fortunes around.

There are many things he can get going for him – his biggest asset being a strong “latent” support base among young and educated urban voters, which is a very large and fast growing segment, thanks to our country’s demographics. They are largely disillusioned and disenfranchised by the country’s politics, and given that they feel so helpless about their country’s future, the only thing they care about is trying to find a way to immigrate to any other country.

He needs to find a way to mobilize them. His crazy talk show appearances, where he spews out strong inconsistent rhetoric against anyone and everyone, coupled with his delusional self-belief, are not going to get him their support – or anyone’s support for that matter. Something needs to change.

Can he start focusing on developing a base of consistent and focused key messages which will appeal to this core base, and also build a really kick-ass grass roots campaign machine focused around them? Surely he can mobilize all these students based on just their selfless (or collectively selfish) motivation to fix the country and defeat any political party, with their messy system of “karkuns” (political workers), built around a selfish and self-destructive system of patronage and rent distribution.

 Yes we Khan! Yes we Khan! Yes we Khan!

Saturday 24 September 2011

Religion to the extreme II


I have been reading a multi-part series of articles by Ajmal Kamal, published in the Express Tribune titled the “Development of the modern maulvi” (a maulvi is literally a pastor or a theologian, but more often a reference to a very religious person, often a religious radical). Part VI has been published in today’s paper. There seem to be more parts to this series, but the first 6 are already very interesting and already worth writing about.

Ajmal Kamal is one of the foremost scholars on this topic. I have heard him speak at Karachi’s T2F (The Second Floor – their mission is to “reduce intellectual poverty”, but they also serve great coffee), and also read some of his earlier work in the papers. What I have learnt from him informed much of my earlier post a couple of months back: Religion to the extreme (http://mambojambosalama.blogspot.com/2011/07/religion-to-extreme.html).

The articles in this particular set require quite a bit of knowledge of context and are a bit long and dry, and also tend to veer slightly off track – it takes some deep pools of interest in the topic to get through them. Let me try to briefly synthesize and tie them together for a universal audience:

i)                    POWER CREATED: In the middle part of the second millennium a stronghold on (Islamic) religious education and spirituality took root in the sub-continent – it was driven by a strong belief in the tradition of “apprenticeship” – teaching was reserved for “pirs” or “masters”, a highly spiritualized profession, which earned much patronage, and was passed on from generation to generation – education was exclusive; reserved for the “learned classes” – all this whilst my ancestors (from the “farmer” caste) structurally could not do much more than just plough their fields – no belief, no motivation, no infrastructure to provide means of transport, etc.



ii)                   POWER CONSOLIDATED: In fact, to preserve this stronghold (with its many social and economic benefits), several prejudices were created and perpetuated by the elite ruling educated class – mainly against non-Muslims, minority Shiites and lower-castes, but also cutting across other dimensions, e.g. gender – pluralism died (or was never really born) as we not only learnt to, but developed a habit of judging others, and accusing anyone and everyone of being a kafir (infidel) or at least believing without question that they were either destined for hell (the non-Muslims or Shiites in this case), or that they deserved their lower social status (the lower castes, such as my “farmer” ancestors, or women in this case)



iii)                 POWER SHAKEN-UP: Colonialism shook things up – old traditions were uprooted or were seriously threatened by rapid changes in the socio-economic dynamics of society; modern education, canal systems, new infrastructure and civil works, postal systems, civil service institutions, etc. provided unprecedented access to many more (such as my farmer family, which had by now become educated civil servants) and catalyzed the creation of the “Deoband” school (they fall just behind the Taliban on the extremism spectrum – in a very controversial way, a precursor to the Taliban). This was exacerbated by the identity politics or crisis faced by old school Muslims in the sub-continent – who for the first time in hundreds of years, were no longer in positions of privelege, power and control.



iv)                 RIVALRY & CONFLICT: The Deobandi School borrowed almost all of its ideology from the Wahhabis in Najd (present day Saudi Arabia – where women cannot drive, and men are castigated if they are idling around at prayer time). These were reformist ideas which were appealing or well suited to the times – on the other side of the spectrum to the more traditional “sufi”ish ideas. But there was a twist – the Deobandis cleverly, took over teaching and spiritualism from the old school (sufi-ish) guys, who as we know bequeathed them from their ancestors (by now known as the Barelvis – the Barelvi movement was started in the early 1800s as a reaction to the threat that their interests faced), thus ending their monopoly. As Ajmal Kamal points out in a story of Maulana Ashraf Ali Thanvi, an early and highly influential Deobandi, they cunningly preserved the old traditions of patronage of religious teachers and scholars.



His six parts sort of end on this note – but as we all know, what ensued was a bitter rivalry, and a tussle for this power, which eventually turned violent, and took on other political dimensions as well.

What this also teaches us, and what I also highlighted in my previous post on this topic, is that religious extremism was fait accompli or largely deterministic for Pakistan – rooted in hundreds of years of history – whilst both our political and military leaders have never been principled enough, if at all held any principles what so ever, or not had the spine to tackle this visible and dangerous trend, events such as the Lahore riots of the 1950s, or Bhutto’s declaration of Ahmedis as apostates, or his introduction of prohibition, or even Zia-ul-Haq’s super acceleration of the entire process, with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, were mere milestones in the continuous running process.

The slide continues – It’s not just religious violence now, but more so all the ethnic and other divides which define and drive the politics of our country today. Let’s hope we don’t splinter into a bunch of  theological and ethnic fiefdoms run by maulvis and warlords – or to put it simply – a state of anarchy.

Thursday 22 September 2011

On women in leadership and gender equality

PROLOGUE: This post is meant to evoke thought and promote debate. Therefore, please do not take it seriously...

Readers – This trail of thought started a couple of days back when a friend sent across an article on Hina Rabbani Khar, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister. Now, my friend is not from Pakistan, and does not know much about Pakistan or its politics, but she was intrigued by this article and wanted to understand more. In case you didn’t already know, Hina Rabbani Khar is a rather young and attractive lady. Now, that’s not the way I would like to introduce an important member of our cabinet, but these details are critical to the plot – the main reason for all the table talk and media coverage around her.
Hina Rabbani Khar hails from a powerful feudal family. Her family holds unquantifiable tracts of land in her district constituency, and has a very strong hold on elections there. In fact, she is one of the very few women parliamentarians not on a “quota” seat for women. 22% of Pakistan’s parliament is comprised of women, but only 4% out of this 22% have actually been elected by the people in their constituencies, with the remaining 18% having been brought in by their parties on the quota system. Now, women need to be represented in parliament, but the politics and party dynamics around this quota system are very messy or to put it more softly, less than ideal – a “second best outcome” as I like to say.
Hina Rabbani Khar went on an official visit to India a few months back. Always a big event, since you are probably well aware of the history of animosity between the two countries. The media coverage in India was mostly centered around her exquisite looks, her Prada shoes and her Gucci handbag, whereas the coverage back home (as perhaps expected) was more polarized to the extremes. Some hailed her as an effective tool of diplomacy, someone who can project our “soft image”, whereas others were flabbergasted by the show she put on as a glamour princess.
What she had to say about foreign policy was barely heard – it was irrelevant. Not only did she not achieve much, I don’t think she could achieve much, given that the big relationship plays between India and Pakistan are usually not made by the foreign minister, but by the other power players. As a professional and a woman leader, I support her credentials. She seems to be smarter and more tactically astute than most in our cabinet, but her family background does raise questions on whether a meritocracy truly exists in our government. Indeed, the bar in our cabinet is very low, and there are many significantly more talented candidates for that position – they just do not hail from powerful backgrounds.
But just the fact that she is in a highly visible public position as a woman leader can have a positive impact. There is a JPal (Abdul Lateef Jameel Poverty Action Lab – they do some terrific work – www.jpal.org) study on how a visible woman leader can have an impact by positively reshaping social attitudes. Although in this specific case, someone who is so “westernized” and out of touch with her people, is unlikely to influence many. She probably does not reach many people in the public sphere, since foreign policy is not that sexy or interesting anymore, especially coming from the foreign minister – those that she does reach are probably going to dismiss her out of hand as someone with twisted values or worse the product of some western conspiracy.
Speaking of western conspiracies; the conversation with my friend went over to the western world. It’s an old topic –why women still significantly trail men in science and engineering, especially at the very cream of the crop, and also why they still haven’t been able to shatter the glass ceiling. In a bit of a mischievous and un-PC (politically correct) mood, I quoted the same reasons as Larry Summers.
Larry Summers is another interesting character. He was the former President of Harvard University. He is an incredible individual, an inspiration to me personally in many ways. An economist by training, he has devoted a large part of his career to public service, including serving as Treasury Secretary at the tail end of the Clinton administration. We seem to share the same general management attitude and approach to public service. Henry Kissinger once said that Larry Summers should be “given a White House post in which he was charged with shooting down or fixing bad ideas”.
Indeed, he was slated for a senior role in the Obama administration, until he made a serious gaffe. As President of Harvard University he presented a few controversial hypotheses on why women trail men in engineering and science – especially as tenured professors, etc. He had caveated and prefaced his speech, clearly mentioning that his ideas were meant to provoke and start a debate – but this was not enough. He lost his job, and any sort of opportunity in the Obama administration, even though he apologized repeatedly for his gaffe. You can find his ideas on Wikipedia, the source for all things controversial and non-controversial:
The question since the dawn of my intellectual awakening has always been that between intrinsic differences and social or cultural issues. It’s so complex that it has to be a combination – but as I will show you through the rest of this post, these positions are being politically high jacked and peddled around selectively in ways that make me cringe, and in ways that stifle the debate.
Social or cultural issues are important. It is the main reason why women still trail men in non-western societies. When I was 5, I left Saudi Arabia, where women are still not allowed to drive, and moved with my family to Pakistan. I was shocked to see that women had that kind of freedom in Pakistan – the kind of freedom to get behind the wheel of a car. In fact, I remember telling my 1st grade class that “when I grow up, I will make sure that women are not allowed to drive jeeps”. Driving a jeep was the ultimate freedom, or symbol of rebellion, that could not be spared for women (I suppose by this time I had come to accept that they could drive sedans). A quick note is in order here – as shocked as you might be by my early attitudes – I have changed.
But when it comes to feminism and equality, intrinsic differences are taboo – too politically incorrect – cannot be discussed. It is politics and it is social engineering. When I was 16, I spent the summer interning at an NGO in Islamabad. Part of the induction training was a day-long sensitivity workshop on gender equality. Now gender inequality is a huge issue in Pakistan, which in spite of my Saudi beginnings, I am deeply passionate about – simple intellectual discourse doesn’t help push the cause. But the core foundation for the equality argument was that there are absolutely no intrinsic differences, which is a position I am just not able to accept. Larry Summers went a little over board, and actually provoked the issue himself, getting destroyed in the process. He should have known better – but so should the people (or rather society) that destroyed him.
Women in Western societies have come a long way, so much so that men are now in danger. Indeed, at the belly of the curve (that is the average), boys are trailing girls in educational attainment, and women are now outnumbering men in the workforce. Again, it’s not that simple – a combination of social issues and intrinsic differences. Today’s boys have it very hard – there are intrinsic issues in their make-up; an inability to focus, stay centered, etc. which are exacerbated by a society which has become highly sexualized, and provided them with tools like video games, which are taking them deeper into the abyss. Philip Zimbardo, the eminent psychologist, famous for the Stanford prison experiment, recently articulated this in a TED Talk titled “The demise of guys”.
We know from the Larry Summers fiasco that at the tail ends of the distribution, it’s still a man’s world – lucky for me. There are programs such as the McKinsey Women’s Initiative, which help bridge this gap. Diversity is important and indeed, the composition of a top institution like McKinsey should mirror that of the society that it serves. But diversity is complex – whether or not we are prejudiced against someone, either overtly, or subconsciously based on social engineering and attitudes, and whether or not this is based on a superficial characteristic which is relevant or irrelevant to the job or position at hand, makes my head spin. Gender is one of our main and highly visible characteristics which we need to balance, but what about the other ones? OK – stop – let’s just keep the topic simple and focused on gender.
 At the risk of making the same gaffe as Larry Summers, what if it is intrinsic differences which are driving the numbers? Wait – I should know better. In today’s society we cannot even acknowledge that there could be the possibility of a slight likelihood of the most minimal chance that the intrinsic differences hypotheses is a valid driver. Or rather as men we don’t have that license, but women have every right to do so, especially when it works to their advantage.
So when women start to do well, as they are now starting to in the corporate world, intrinsic differences are spelt out – even celebrated. An article in the McKinsey Quarterly which I read about a year or so back, showed that women leaders in business were more effective on 4 out of the 5 dimensions of leadership, and that the 5th one was a tie – mostly driven by intrinsic differences, if not for the gender specific roles that women are given in today’s world (which a few years back in the feminist age, they would have blamed for all their problems).
So even though this was all taboo in yesterday’s feminist world, let us celebrate it today. I guess political pockets which become very powerful over time can perpetually highjack the debate, and start to take their power to the next level – contrarian folk, so fond of intellectual discourse, like yours truly, have to tread carefully. Please don’t hang me like Larry Summers for speaking my mind, or even trying to have a discussion. My hands are up. I have raised my white flag. I shall pay reparations with full interest for my forefathers’ sins. They were terrible sins indeed.

Monday 19 September 2011

On Social Enterprise & Impact Investment

Readers – Here’s my first, one hour, 1,000 word, blog post. I will be examining a couple of facets of social enterprise, based on two sets of separate yet insightful conversations with friends out here in Nairobi. Hope you also find them to be interesting and insightful.

Posture on social enterprise

Social enterprise or impact investment is hot. There are obviously those who disregard it as “hippy stuff”, but among those who are part of the industry, or deeply interested in it, broadly speaking, there are two extreme positions (with lots of ground in the middle of course):

i)                    Strong belief and passionate advocacy

ii)                   Skepticism with highly critical judgment

Jacqueline Novogratz, the CEO of Acumen Fund, is firmly in Category I. Someone like yours truly is closer to Category II, but believe it or not, not all the way to the extreme. Both sets of positions are valuable – both sets of players have a contribution to make to this space.

Acumen Fund has attracted millions (and in the future it shall probably attract billions) of dollars of capital into this space, and inspired thousands of man-hours of top end talent to contribute to this broad cause. Jacqueline Novogratz would not be able to achieve this if her speeches in, for example, a large Acumen investor event, positioned her somewhere in the middle.

For someone like me, it would be counterproductive, if not downright immature to show strong intellectual discourse in these forums, even though some sweeping statements on social enterprise cause me to instinctively and reflexively cringe. And many enterprises would not get valuable counsel; help, advice and support were it not for the critical thinking and push which truth telling individuals like myself try to drive across the organizations that we support and serve (in a politically and diplomatically effective manner of course).

So there are the “marketeers” or “cheer leaders”, and there are the “critical thinkers” or “part-curmudgeons”. Intrinsically, the former set values fairness as an end more than anything else whereas the later set values truth-telling as the means more than anything else (notwithstanding the other many strange characters in this space e.g. those who are completely blinded by the coolade, or those who are chronically contrarian). I say – pick a position and fulfill your role.

What defines a social enterprise?

There can be many definitions for social enterprise. I don’t think even any of the large and well established impact investment organizations working in this space have a crystal clear definition. It varies by the individual you speak to. Here are two possible and fairly common definitions:

i)                    Any enterprise which serves customers or works with suppliers at the base of the pyramid

ii)                   Any “sustainable” enterprise  which solves a well-defined social problem

“II” is the more classic social enterprise, the kinds of investments you would associate with the Acumens and GBFs of the world. It includes entities which solve “in your face” social problems, such as financial inclusion, healthcare, clean water, sanitation, clean energy, housing development, etc.

“I” includes everything from telcos, to FMCG distribution companies and FMCG procurement companies to even SMEs– in addition to some of the enterprises which solve “in your face” social problems. Let’s throw in Celtel, MTN, Coca-Cola, Unilever and Nestle, a few unknown SMEs, along with some microfinance organizations, or healthcare service providers. These organizations are all creating jobs, and/or providing goods and services which consumers at the base of the pyramid demand and value, thus impacting the lives of the poor.

The big buzz-term is social enterprise is “double bottom-line” i.e. profitability and social impact. “I” are by definition truly sustainable and subsidy free. But for “I”, even though profitability is clear, social impact is often very hard to measure and market to the rest of the world – thus not even considered. These organizations therefore, often slip through the radars of the Acumens and GBFs of the world, even though they do not always have easy access to finance. As some of my friends working in this space will tell you, many of them are SMEs with good truly sustainable business models, but which are unable to get the financing they require, and thus not able to scale up and succeed.

For “II” true profitability is often missing, but they do tend to be “sustainable” – funded through indirect subsidies. Because their social impact is well defined and easy to measure, these organizations are able to market themselves very well. They are thus able pull on a lot of low cost impact investment capital, an indirect subsidy, and are also able to attract many volunteers and below market rate top talent, also often a significant indirect subsidy.

It’s not that their business models are necessarily flawed or cannot be made truly sustainable, even though sometimes this is the case. But because marketing “in your face” impact is relatively easy, they are able to attract value and transfer it to their customers at the base of the pyramid – tangibly this translates to reaching more customers and/or being able to provide a lower price. As one friend in Nairobi, who is heading one of these enterprises once remarked, “We now have access to so much low cost capital; we don’t need to charge higher interest rates, even though our customers would probably still pay.”

I am not saying that it is a bad thing to transfer value to the base of the pyramid – often it makes a huge difference in people’s lives, and that too very subtly. Instead of giving them simple handouts which destroy dignity and create a culture of dependency, we provide them with what they perceive to be a market driven service, thus preserving their right to choice and their dignity. It’s a very powerful and ingenious route to charity. And let’s not even use a strong word like “charity” – it’s at least partially market driven, so let’s just call it a “value transfer”.

Those funding the subsidy, either through the opportunity cost of their time, or the true opportunity cost of their capital are providing a valuable and selfless service. But let’s recognize these subtle differences, so that we are truly aware of what we are doing and what we are not – who we are able to support, and who gets left out – and thus be able to better accomplish what we set out or strive to do.

Sunday 18 September 2011

Reflections on reflecting - Changing blog times

Friends of Mambo Jambo –

It’s only been a couple of months but I am absolutely hooked … to writing, that is. I had never written this regularly or seriously before, and as I am discovering, it’s the best medium to deepen reflection and transform it into expression. It really provides space and time to think, collect and structure. It’s beautiful. Writing (and reading – without which there would be no writing) ought to be done a lot.

But times are changing. I have started a serious business school bid, which will keep me very busy for the next 4 months or so. Also, between work, extra work and expanding non-work activities, I no longer have the luxury to write 3,000 word posts which usually take up half a day of my time. I need to change. To induce and sustain change, I shall hold myself to the following – with you as my witnesses.

From now on all my posts will be 1,000 words or less – some will be very pithy and concise. I will cut down the frequency to once a week, or once every two weeks, depending on how big my backlog of ideas is, and how badly I need my fix to put them out there.

Also, I will not spend more than 1 hour on each post. They will still contain original content and ideas, just fewer stories and shenanigans – getting somewhat less personal in the process. The topics will continue to be eclectic – a reflection of the rich and diverse times we live in. I realize I lose a lot of followers because I do not follow a “theme”. More so than not having a theme, my topics tend to hit very random, diverse and sometimes deep niches, across geography, history, politics, business, economics, culture, travels and life, so they cannot be consistently interesting to everyone – even anyone.

But one of the things I enjoy most about writing is being able to cover such wide ground, without tripping up too much. Indeed, it is often not easy, loaded with pitfalls and leaving me extremely stretched, even vulnerable. But it’s a great way to force myself to conquer the topics. Now that I have written on topics such as the Army, Religious Extremism or Microfinance, I am so much more confident in my knowledge and perspectives – and able to talk to anyone on them. And the backlog of ideas for topics is huge. Here are the one’s sitting in my blog folder right now:

I)                    Arranged marriage – Culture, family politics or pragmatism?

II)                  Islamic Finance – Letter or spirit?

III)                The emerging service class drought – Is entrepreneurship the way-out?

IV)               Hostage to a minority – What the tea party and the radical extremists have in common

V)                 Cuisine innovation – How unprecedented cross-cultural access is shaking things up

VI)               Social Enterprise – Balancing profit with purpose

VII)             What exactly I do for a living? Perspectives on general management

VIII)           The end of the sovereign state – Eliminating borders in today’s world

IX)                Paternalism & individualism in morality – Reflections on waving children in Uganda

Stay tuned … and please send across any special requests from this list.

Thursday 15 September 2011

My Army opinion column in "The News"

A version of my previous blogpost on The Pakistan Army just got printed in "The News", as an opinion column. "The News" is one of the top 3 English newspapers in Pakistan, probably the widest circulating one. My article sits between Ayaz Amir, one of the most prolific opinion column writers in Pakistan, someone I have been reading ever since I was a little kid, and Dr. Muzaffar Iqbal, a renowned scholar, who has been working to bring together Islam and science.

Please follow the link:

http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=67829&Cat=9

Wednesday 7 September 2011

Perspectives on the Pakistan Army


Readers – After a few personal posts, I am back to politics and punditry. This post is inspired a little bit by and relevant to my current immediate surroundings in Pakistan. It intends to provide a balanced perspective on the Pakistan Army, an institution which is either altogether loved, or entirely despised. Enjoy the read – come to the center!

The Army is the single most powerful institution in Pakistan. General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, the current Chief of Army Staff is the 29th most powerful person in the world according to Forbes magazine, ahead of anyone else in Pakistan. He beat Mark Zuckerberg (of Facebook) by 11 places – take that Dogbert (See Exhibit A). And often, with great power follows great hatred. The Army was at one point, beyond doubt, the single most despised institution in the country (at the tail-end of Musharraf’s rule). Some still harbor hatred against it with the same zeal, although much of strong hatred against it has since receded. But at the same time, it has also been and continues to be a highly loved and respected institution. Love it or hate it – people hold strong perspectives on it.



Speaking of love for the Army, yesterday was the 6th of September, traditionally a public holiday in Pakistan, celebrated as “Defense Day”. This was the day in 1965 when the Pakistan Army launched a successful campaign to defend Lahore against Indian attack (after first “starting it” a month or so earlier, by trying to infiltrate into Indian Controlled Kashmir – Operation Gibraltar). Yesterday, as I was driving across Islamabad, the radio waves were crowded with patriotic and military songs, which I remember (rather fondly) from my childhood. Indeed, it’s every little Pakistani boy’s dream to join the Army and defend the country against India (I was part of this craziness as well – I must confess).

But what is “The Army” beyond the rather clichéd, tired and now largely irrelevant security considerations vis-à-vis India? Yes! Beyond the rhetoric, India is now too big and (let me say it) responsible for us to remain all obsessed with as a security threat. India has more important priorities now than conspiring against tired and failing old Pakistan to its west – such as lifting millions of its citizens out of poverty, and carving out a strong role for itself in a multi-polar world. Also, with nuclear weapons now in the game, the age old (but childish) dreams of conventional military gains against one another (such as those which inspired Operation Gibraltar in 1965, or the Kargil War as recently as 1999) need to be buried for good. Finally, with home grown terrorism now the most significant threat to Pakistan, some of which has been seeded by the Army, our national defense strategy and the role of the army within this strategy should change the story or the narrative which the Army plays to the people - or alternatively, which the people shape for the army (the way it should be).

Indeed the Army is a complex beast. As an objective and somewhat detached stakeholder in the game, it is very hard to hold a strong perspective on it (I am neither part of the Army, nor a full time civilian resident). On the one hand it has acted as a bit of a stabilizing and binding force for the country. On the other hand, it is accused of the same integrity issues as everyone else, and also of not being able to cleanly manage political intricacies and build institutions – a destabilizing force for the long-term. On the one hand, it is a huge resource drain, especially on an extremely poor country. On the other hand, its disciplined and stabilizing influence has been a wealth creator, especially in the land of Military Inc., a large empire of highly successful military assets and enterprises.

So what is the Army? It is the quintessential national middle-class institution in Pakistan. Wikipedia defines an institution as:

An institution is any structure or mechanism of social order and cooperation governing the behavior of a set of individuals within a given human community. Institutions are identified with a social purpose and permanence, transcending individual human lives and intentions, and with the making and enforcing of rules governing cooperative human behavior.

The Pakistan Army is a high disciplined and effective force which fits every word of the definition above. If there is any doubt what so ever, let’s contrast it with the Afghan, Iraq or Somali National Armies. In many ways, The Pakistan Army is the glue which holds the nation together – one of the reasons why Pakistan is not an Afghanistan, Iraq or Somalia (at least not yet – let’s be careful now – Somalia once had the largest and most powerful armies in Africa – now it’s a bunch of splintered tribes – the same pieces can be just as destructively potent as they were once united and powerful). Indeed, the US and its allies have been trying to build National Armies in these countries with little success, one of the reasons why they remain such fragile states. Most of all, the Pakistan Army holds years and years of tradition – with strong structures, well established processes and most important of all, good, strong values anchored around a shared sense of purpose.

Pakistan is often accused of being a “country” not a “nation”, with multiple ethnicities having been carved out of the Western belt of the Indian sub-continent and clubbed together (for example, it encompasses what some might consider random  “Pashtun” areas, cut off from Afghanistan, and which are often questioned for their natural fit with the rest of the cocktail). Over the past 64 years or so, “nation building” has been centered largely around the threat from the enemy on the Eastern border, and The Army has been at the very heart of this nation building action. Also, as the paranoia from this threat built up, especially in the first two to three decades of the country’s existence (when it might actually have been real), the Army really got its act together and became inclusive and egalitarian – “values driven”, as I might deem it to be. Indeed, when the British managed the Army, and even a decade after they left the sub-continent, only designated “martial races” were allowed to be part of the military, an extension of the old caste practices of India. Over time, the Army was opened up to everyone. Farmers in the caste system, such as my tribe or family, were allowed to join. 2 of my 9 uncles joined the Army round about the time it was opened up to everyone, and served for over two decades each, something they take great pride in.

I contrast the Army with the other power players in Pakistan, which are largely devoid of institutional characteristics, especially good values. The (democratic) politicians started out largely as Feudal or Tribal lords and over time acquired industrial assets as well. Their power base is often anchored in the ignorance and tribalism of their “traditional” supporters and a vicious cycle of extracting rents from the system, and plugging them back to their support base (a sort of “leeching” on the system). The theocrats, which have never really been power players until recently (as they have started to use violence to try to impose their ideas and will as a minority on the majority), remain largely lost and without strategy or structure – they are short-sighted, disunited, and largely preoccupied with spreading hatred and violence to protect their petty little turfs.

With these sorts of players in the picture, it is no surprise that the Army has stepped in multiple times to replace civilian Governments to try to stabilize the country. I would strongly argue that they have had a stabilizing effect, at least in the short-term. The one intervention which happened in my lifetime was that of Musharraf. Now, I am no Musharraf supporter, but when he took over in 1999, the country was teetering on the brink of economic collapse. By 2005, it was ranked a top reformer by the World Bank, and was cited by Goldman Sachs as one of the 12 emerging markets to watch out for, a new set of future powerhouses in addition to the BRICs (GS got so carried away after the success of BRICs – most of those 12 countries have actually faltered).

Now, at the risk of passing judgment – Musharraf was a man with good intentions, trapped in the constraints of a hybrid regime, where many of these same crooked players influenced, or rather tightened his action space. That Government had to be disbanded. Civil society, which played a strong role in its disbandment, had to act. What followed it has been worse, much worse in fact, but nevertheless that Government (of Musharraf) had to be disbanded. Regardless of what you might think of Musharraf, one fact which is undeniable is that economic growth was strong under his government, as it has been under every military government, especially compared to civilian Governments (See Exhibit B). I pulled some data from the Federal Bureau of Statistics, which shows that not just overall GDP, but every component of GDP has grown strongly under military Governments, especially when compared with civilian Governments (See Exhibit C).





Now some accuse the Army of following short-term economic policies which stimulate “temporary” even “reversible” growth or worse, accuse it of fudging the numbers, but I think this is all hogwash. Simple counter argument – civilian Governments can do exactly the same thing, yet they continuously seem to plunge the economy into hopelessness (reminds me of that old saying – “Things can always get worse”). I got carried away with my analysis a little bit, and split economic performance by era of Government (See Exhibit D). Zia, Ayub and Musharraf are the top three performers in exactly that order. In sharp contrast, things have never been worse than the current era, which I have taken the liberty to label “Best revenge” (to quote a famous speech – “Democracy is the best revenge”). My conclusion – when the military is in power, animal spirits tend to pick up, and people seem to be ready to do business. A stabilizing force.



But the Army is also often accused of perpetuating many of the same ills which have been created by the civilian feudo-tribo-industrial power elite. Not only have they not used their windows in power as opportunities to carry out sweeping reforms, such as making the big push for universal high quality education (which shows their apathy), they have been accused of greed and corruption (which accuses them of lack of integrity). Whenever a civilian Government is toppled, virtually every senior bureaucratic officer is replaced by a Colonel, Brigadier or General, a practice which clearly does not help in sustainable institution or nation building. It is not easy, in fact it is impossible, to hold them accountable for gross corruption or misconduct, let alone their “actual performance” in these “civilian” positions.

And the Army has made several short-sighted tactical power plays in the political space, often seeding ethnic rifts, or worse terrorism and genocide. Indeed, many of Pakistan’s major issues today can be traced back to “the agencies”, whether it is the creation of the MQM, the gangsters who control Karachi today, and refuse to let it function humanely, or the creation of the Taliban, which we know all about. And let’s briefly mention the 1971 genocide in what was East Pakistan then, or Bangladesh today. So much concentrated power, especially when left unchecked, can be such a destabilizing force, especially in the long run.

In terms of resources, the Army is a huge burden on the national exchequer. It consumes 20% of the national budget. There is no good or productive service which the army is providing, so in economic terms this 20% is a “transfer payment” a pure tax or burden on the rest of the country. What the country spends on its defense amounts to roughly 3% of GDP. Now this is still lower than many countries such as the United States, Israel or South Korea – but still too much of a burden for a poor country like Pakistan. Education, which is the No. 1 investment a labor abundant country like Pakistan needs to make only gets 2% of GDP. Healthcare gets even less. When military expenses grow, as they have been in recent years, education and healthcare often have to suffer cuts.

Not only is this money not being spent productively, but some of the military traditions it is used to fund are fairly absurd – at least from my outside-in civilian lens. Walk into a military complex, even a non-military part of a garrison town in Pakistan, and you’ll find the bottom half of the barks of trees painted white, with a red stripe at the top edge of this white. Why are the trees painted red and white, when this is not how nature intended them to be? Because what else are all the soldiers going to do with all their free time. There are six hundred thousand of them, as a buffer for potential all-out conflict – they need to be provided with tasks to keep them sane. Who pays for the paint? The tax-payer.

On the other hand though, these garrison towns are impressive. As one of my cousins, who lives in DHA (or Defense Housing Authority) Lahore, interestingly pointed out a few years back, 90% of the top end residential developments in Pakistan today are either Army built or also Army managed. In fact, private real estate developers are fairly recent entrants into the market, after having been shown by the Army how value can be added to urban land. Most developments built or managed by civilian public institutions are falling apart, with Islamabad being the only notable exception. The Defense Housing Authoritys or DHAs are impressive. One cannot bribe their way to violating building codes, as is the case across virtually every civilian housing authority in the country. Parts of Karachi have been turned into high density eye sores, in violation of building codes and safety standards, because the discipline and core values are lacking in their management or core culture. I shudder to think what Karachi will go through the day an earth quake strikes. And it is highly likely to happen. Karachi lies bang on the intersection of the Indian, Euroasian and Middle-East tectonic plates. Not just any seismic zone – one of the most dangerous, densely populated, mismanaged and under-prepared seismic zones in the world.

And many of the Army Welfare Organizations are strong institutions in and of themselves, adding value to the Pakistani economy. These are manufacturing and service enterprises in such sectors as banking, insurance, cement manufacturing and even cereal processing. It’s not entirely clear whether all of them are sustainable on their own, given the lack of transparency around them (they could be getting subsidies from the Defense budget), but I highly doubt that very many of them are losing money. There is a book written by Dr. Aisha Siddiqua, a military analyst, titled “Military Inc.” which portrays a very negative image of these companies and this economic empire. But I take a more balanced, even favorable view.  The Army imparts discipline and general management skills which are the foundation for any sustainable, even high performing enterprise. And if retired military professionals benefit from it (without dipping into the Defense budget), then it’s a win-win for all.

In conclusion, as polarizing an institution as the Army can be, it’s important to hold a balanced perspective on it. It deserves quite a bit of respect for being the only major functional and disciplined institution in the country. But it does wield significant power, and if that power is left unchecked, it can do more harm than good. And it’s our responsibility as members of the civil society to hold them in check – as we did towards the end of the Musharraf Government. Over time, we need to trim the army further, to reduce the burden it places on our national resources, and refocus it from the external threat on the Eastern border, to the external threat on the Western border, and the threat within. Should be do-able, if the Army is truly a reflection of our own security requirements and preferences as the civil society of this country (i.e. if the Army is not its own self-perpetuating power hungry monster machine, as some perceive it to be).