For some reason, it’s a real joy to talk and speculate about
the crazy and unusual things that might happen in our lifetimes. It’s open
license – no right or wrong answers. And I guess there could be no greater creative
and intellectual exercise than to stretch the imagination, and think about how
things might be different to what we’re used to.
I also feel that we live in a really bland world since the
end of the Cold War. The rise of China, pan-Islamic jihadism and the Arab
Spring have spiced things up a little bit – but it’s still a really bland,
neo-liberal, unusually peaceful state we’re in right now, which I don’t think
will last.
And most of the powerful actors in the world have a really
strong moral self-perception, and hold themselves to more moral and ethical scrutiny
than ever before. People still continue to do many bad and ethically questionable
things, but never before have they been so proper, mainstream and questioning
of themselves. It just defies human nature, in my humble opinion.
So, I was doing this over dinner this evening with an old
friend in New York, who is somewhat of a kindred soul. We really think alike – it’s
a little scary at times. Here’s what we came up with:
1. There might be mass
pogroms of Muslims in Europe: The population of Muslims in Europe is rising
fast, and placing some serious stress on the national character of all these countries.
30% of Amsterdam is now Muslim – that’s really insane. And can you imagine a
Muslim majority Amsterdam with legalized prostitution and drugs? It’s going to
happen within the next 30 years.
And at the same time Europe is becoming more and more atheist.
It’s not crazy to imagine the swift rise of a radically militant form of atheism.
Everyone from Bill Maher to Richard Dawkins already represent the first banner
holders of this movement, though at the moment they are quite restrained
because their numbers are so small.
And when that switch flips and demographics do their thing,
it’s going to get really dark and ugly. I really wish that more atheists were
agnostic and held some self-doubt and possibility in the belief of others. Religion isn't the only cause of violence (though it certainly helps) - I hope these atheists realize that people are the biggest cause of violence.
2. Today’s Islamic
world will hold 90% of the world’s failed states: It’s already happening.
But countries like Egypt and Pakistan might be like what Somalia is like today.
I really don’t know how to explain it. Is it religion? Would it have happened
regardless? Did what happened in Karbala 1,400 years ago kill this otherwise (in most ways) miraculous religion? Who knows, but it really seems like it’s going to happen. And the
humanitarian crisis that will follow will be unprecedented.
3. Asia and more
specifically China will be the new United States: People will immigrate to
China in boat loads. The ethnic Han will not do any dirty work. Chinese
physical features will define our new standards for beauty and physical attractiveness.
Koreans are already getting there – you should just watch the music video for the
S.E.O.U.L. song. I don’t hold any trace of Yellow Fever (I even have a
vaccination card to prove it), but I find the girls in that music video to be
attractive. Plastic surgeons will make a killing, changing peoples’ faces to
these ethnic Han physical characteristics. The tiny border between Pakistan and
China will need to be fenced – Chinese anti-immigration hawks will be more
hawkish than the American Tea Party.
4. Israel and
Palestine will only end one way: In mutual destruction. Their positions are
too irreconcilable, and there’s too many nukes out there and too many ways of
delivering them (Pakistan alone could destroy Israel 50 times over, and if the Pakistani
state fails, things could well go there). Enough said. You would have to be
either be really blind or idealistic to not see this coming. What’s more
interesting is whether it will happen suddenly and unpredictably, or whether
there will be a massive immigration wave and period of instability leading up
to that point. Now that’s really hard to say, though my money is on the
suddenness.
5. Bangladesh and an insignificant number of other countries will
sink: As Mid-Western Americans continue to drive their monster trucks and
centrally heat their homes, large parts of some countries such as Bangladesh
will begin to disappear off of the face of the planet. It’s really going to
suck – not least for the humanitarian tragedy that will precipitate, but also because
it will be so complicated to settle who did what to whom (across both geographies and generations/timelines). With it, we’ll lose
unbelievably amazing countries like the Maldives. The Seychelles will survive
because it is hilly, but its beaches won’t look as good. That will also really
suck, because I would rather have the beaches of Seychelles than some cozy
worthless Mid-Western American homes occupied by lazy over-weight people.
6. Immortality:
This one is science fiction. But it’s quite possible to crack. We might miss it
by a generation or two. But it almost seems inevitable – and plenty of time and
energy will be devoted towards cracking it which would be my argument for why
it seems inevitable.
7. Drones will become
both wide-spread, and a giant head-ache to manage, leading possibly to
anarchism: One of the main things keeping terrorist attacks in check right
now is that we can road-block or regulate two dimensional ground traffic, and
air traffic has not been “democratized” (the irony) enough. But once it opens
up, regulating 3-dimensional traffic is going to be an enormous (though not
impossible) challenge.
This might sound like science fiction – but it really isn’t.
Withn a few years one will be able to download a schematic, and 3D print a
drone. It’s completely conceivable.
How will we tell good drones apart from bad ones? May be a
tightly managed centralized registration system? And all that linked to an iron
dome like air defense system that immediately takes down anything that isn’t
authorized? How will we select the gate-keepers of this space from amongst
ourselves? And what about software security and hacking? The technology alone
sounds complicated, and the institutional strength required to pull it off may
only exist in 5 countries right now – may be Singapore and Israel will pull it
off, whereas the rest of us will be doomed.
And how will we maintain Government “red zones” in all these
countries? (a “red-zone” is typically a 5 block by 5 block part of the capital
city, where the formal Government of a failed or failing tends to bunker itself
in, though it typically runs not much more than just the red-zone – Islamabad has
one, that I grew up in, back when it was not the red-zone; Kabul has one;
Baghdad has a really famous one, half of which was taken up by the US Embassy
with its massive country club; Mogadishu has one that’s only 3 blocks by 3
blocks). Will they have to build a giant 3-dimensional cage around it, or something
like that glass dome from the Simpsons movie? But even those things can be
penetrated? How about a complete no-fly zone, where even something as benign as
a flapping bird gets zapped and toasted? Or maybe we will have zapping
technology that differentiates between birds and drones?
P. S. I hope none of this is Nostra-Damus style ambiguous
metaphorical B.S. I’ve tried to make it quite specific. But please do feel free
to let me know what you think and criticize it.
